[2026-27 Italian Serie A] SS Lazio vs Parma: Match Preview Kick-off: October 24, 18:45 UTC
SS Lazio and Parma meet at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome at 18:45 UTC on October 24. Lazio are second after going unbeaten in seven Serie A matches and can move at least temporarily into sole first place with a win. Parma sit 19th and have conceded six goals without scoring in their two matches since changing coaches, though their chances in the previous game suggest their recent results alone do not tell the full story of their attack.
1. Match overview and team form
Serie A, after 7 matches Positions and points: SS Lazio 2nd, 19 points; Parma 19th, 4 points Records: SS Lazio 6 wins, 1 draw; Parma 1 win, 1 draw, 5 losses Goals for and against: SS Lazio 14-4; Parma 4-13
Lazio are level on points with Inter but behind on goal difference. After a 3-0 win away to Juventus, coach Gattuso said he would prioritise the Parma match over the away trip to Sassuolo three days later. Reports also suggest he could keep most of the Juventus starting lineup. Parma, meanwhile, host Udinese four days later in a match tied to the relegation battle. Both teams need points now, but the next fixture may influence substitution decisions if the scoreline opens up.
Lazio's recent increase in goals has coincided with their attacking patterns taking shape. They won each of their first three league matches by a one-goal margin, but scored at least twice in each of the following four. Noslin receives the ball up front and links with teammates, while Nuno Tavares and Zaccagni advance on the left. Against Monza, Lazio won the ball back twice as the opposition tried to play out from the back and scored from those turnovers. Their three goals against Juventus came from a short corner, a switch of play and a substitute's solo run. Their pressing and quick transitions have also been effective when opponents try to carry the ball forward.
Recent results should not be judged as if they fully reflect the performances. In Lazio's last three league matches with expected-goals data, they recorded 3.64 expected goals and 4.51 expected goals against, while the actual score across those games was 8-1. They also scored three against Juventus from 0.53 expected goals. That points to clinical finishing from limited chances and saves from Mandas contributing to the wins. These numbers cover only three matches and do not describe the season as a whole. At home, Lazio led AC Milan and Monza 2-0 at half-time, then conceded in both second halves. The Milan match ended 2-2, while against Monza they gave up further chances for a spell despite facing 10 men. Gattuso also identified how the team managed leads as a problem after those two matches.
Parma have lost 3-0 away to Inter and at home to Torino since Gilardino took over on September 29. Against Inter, they conceded after goalkeeper Corvi's short pass was intercepted, after a defender reacted late, and in the space behind their high defensive line. They were 2-0 down within 25 minutes against Torino as well. That explains why Gilardino has stressed the team's attitude and discipline in the opening 25 minutes.
The 3-0 defeat to Torino does not show the whole story of Parma's attack. They registered 25 shots after falling 2-0 behind, and their expected-goals figure of 1.57 was almost level with Torino's. Their expected goals away to Inter, however, were just 0.46. We should distinguish a match in which they increased their shot count after the opposition sat back from an away game in which they barely created chances. Parma have also lost all three of their league away matches this season, but those came against Juventus, Como and Inter.
The key selection doubt for Lazio is Taylor, the left-sided central midfielder. He returned to training after a thigh bruise against Juventus, but his availability will be decided on matchday. Taylor has started all eight of Lazio's competitive matches this season and makes runs behind the opposing midfield as Zaccagni and Tavares move. Dele-Bashiru is the alternative if Taylor is unavailable. He carried the ball from his own half to score against Juventus, but does not offer the same short-passing link on the left as Taylor. Rovella, Marušić, Przyborek and Gudmundsson are also mentioned among the absentees. However, their league minutes this season have been limited: 127 for Rovella, 19 for Marušić and 39 for Gudmundsson, so the established starting lineup is unlikely to change all at once.
Parma have left Nicolò Caviglia, Almqvist and Elphege out of the squad. Almqvist and Elphege combined for the winning goal in Parma's only league victory this season, against Genoa. Elphege played the ball through and Almqvist beat a defender before finishing. Their absences leave Parma with fewer options to change the attack through an individual run in the second half. Gilardino has said his remaining forwards make plenty of runs but the team lacks someone who can hold the ball up at the point of the attack. Romero's runs in behind are a role to watch among the available forwards.
Noslin came off the bench to score in both meetings between the teams last season. He got the winner away to Parma in December 2025 and scored an equaliser at the Olimpico in April 2026. Noslin is now likely to start up front, and both teams have different coaches from those matches. Parma's record of two draws in their last two visits to the Olimpico does not tell us much about today's tactics or starting lineups either. Lazio's organised supporters will be absent, as they have been for other home matches this season. The teams have had six and five days of rest since their previous matches, respectively, and rain and strong winds are not forecast around kick-off.
2. Matchup analysis
Parma's passing choices in their own half will matter in the opening stages. Gattuso's Lazio use a 4-3-3, pressing when opponents build from the back and attacking quickly after winning the ball. Against Inter, Parma lost Corvi's short pass to Keita and conceded the opening goal in the 13th minute. A turnover in a similar area against Lazio could quickly give Frattesi room to run forward and Noslin a chance to link the attack. Five of the six goals Parma have conceded in Gilardino's two matches came within the first 31 minutes, which adds to the importance of their early decisions.
If Parma cut down on short passes, they can reduce the risk of mistakes at the back. But if their forwards cannot hold long balls, Lazio will have another chance to attack. Parma have resorted to long passes before when Como's press prevented them from progressing with short combinations. Given Gilardino's concerns about holding the ball up front and the absences of Almqvist and Elphege, long passes alone will not make it easy to escape the press and sustain attacks. Bernabé is expected to organise the passing from deep, but Parma will first have to find him under Lazio's pressure.
If Parma get through that press, Romero's runs become a threat. He can receive a forward pass behind Lazio's high defensive line. Romero beat a defender to score the opener against Genoa, but his movement alone will not create a chance. Bernabé or Keita need to find him with an accurate pass under pressure. It is a possible route to an early Parma goal, but the buildup to that pass is also where Lazio will look to win the ball.
If Lazio have extended spells of possession, the battle down the left will be central. Tavares can push on the outside while Zaccagni drops to receive the ball or moves inside, forcing Parma's right wing-back to decide whom to track. Taylor's runs behind the opposing midfield would also require coordination between Parma's right centre-back and midfielder. Parma have yet to decide whether Britschgi will play at right wing-back or Del Prato will move across. If Del Prato takes the flank, Diego Carlos could slot in at right centre-back. Either option will have to deal with Lazio's most frequent attacking route from the outset.
Taylor's absence would change that contest. Dele-Bashiru can drive forward with the ball, but his role differs from Taylor's in combining with Tavares and Zaccagni with short passes to shift the opposition defence. If Parma defend with five at the back and sit deep, Lazio will have less space to advance down the left. Lazio managed only 0.47 expected goals from open play in their away win over Venezia. In matches like that, Isaksen on the right and corners become important attacking routes. Lazio's opener against Juventus also came from a short corner, followed by Zaccagni's cross and a header from Provstgaard.
Noslin's movement will force Parma's centre-backs to make decisions. When he drops to receive the ball, they must choose whether to follow him or hold their positions. If a centre-back steps out, Frattesi or Zaccagni can attack the space behind; if he stays put, Noslin has time to turn and link with a teammate. Noslin assisted two goals against Monza and came off the bench to score in both of last season's matches against Parma. The key difference today is that Parma may have to deal with his movement from the start, rather than after he comes on.
The second half will depend on who scores first and the margin. If Lazio take the lead, Gilardino could bring on several attackers at half-time or around the 60-minute mark, as he did in his previous two matches. If Parma's wing-backs push forward, Lazio can attack the space behind them on the counter and use their substitutes' forward runs. On the other hand, if Lazio drop deeper to protect a lead, Parma could win more shots and corners. The corner they conceded and the headed chance they allowed in the second half against Monza are situations Gattuso will want to guard against. Parma increased their shots after going behind against Torino, but whether that turns into a goal at the Olimpico is a separate question.
3. Verdict and prediction
We favour Lazio. If Parma try to play out with short passes early, they risk losing the ball in their own half under Lazio's press; if they go long, they may struggle to hold it up front. If Lazio score first and Parma bring on attackers, space could open up behind their advanced wing-backs for Lazio's wide forwards and substitutes to attack. Parma's early concessions and their approach to chasing games both line up with Lazio's routes to goal.
The market favours Lazio, reflecting the standings, goal difference, unbeaten run and Parma's losing streak. We agree on the direction of the result, but see more scope for second-half goals. If Parma make attacking substitutions after falling behind, Lazio could find more chances to add to their lead. If Lazio sit deeper after going in front, Parma may get corners of their own. Parma's recent run without a goal is not enough to rule out a second-half reply.
Our score prediction is 3-1 or 3-0 to Lazio. We expect them to take the lead through an early press or an attack down the left, then add to it in the space behind Parma's defence as they chase the game. Parma could still score from a corner or one of Romero's runs in behind, but the missing attacking options and their issues holding the ball up front could make it difficult to keep up the chase. If Gilardino abandons short build-up from the start and sets up with five defenders deep to keep the first half scoreless, the case for an early Lazio goal weakens. In that scenario, Lazio may need longer to break down a crowded defence and the match could remain close into the second half.
