[2026-27 Italian Serie A] SSC Napoli vs AS Roma preview and analysis Kick-off: October 24, 16:00 UTC
SSC Napoli and AS Roma meet at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium on October 25 at 01:00 Korea time for Serie A Matchday 8. Napoli have 10 points and need to close the gap on Roma, who have 17. A win would take Roma to 20 points and put them top of the table. Both sides have conceded after taking the lead, so how they respond to scoring first could decide the match.
1. Match overview and team form
Serie A after seven rounds Position and points: SSC Napoli 10th, 10 points / AS Roma 3rd, 17 points Record: SSC Napoli 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses / AS Roma 5 wins, 2 draws Goals for and against: SSC Napoli 10 scored, 7 conceded / AS Roma 16 scored, 3 conceded
Napoli lost 1-0 to Venezia in their last league match, but they created plenty of chances. They had 29 shots and an expected goals figure of 2.44, yet failed to score. Across their last three league matches with expected-goals data, they scored four times from 6.96 xG. Lorenzo Lucca has played 201 minutes this season without scoring. Napoli's recent dropped points have partly come from failing to turn chances into goals. Against Arsenal, by contrast, they sat deep and struggled to launch counterattacks, managing only five shots. Finishing problems do not explain every game in which their attack has stalled.
At home, Napoli have won three official matches in a row, against Bologna, Frosinone and Bodø/Glimt. Scott McTominay has returned and scored his first two goals of the season against Bodø/Glimt, which gives the attack a boost. Napoli still conceded three goals in that 4-3 win. They also went on to lose against Inter and Villarreal after taking the lead. Their ability to handle the opposition's response after scoring needs to be judged separately from their three straight home wins.
Roma are unbeaten in the league and have kept clean sheets in all three of their away league matches. Their high man-to-man press wins the ball back and quickly gets it to Donyell Malen, a pattern that worked for the winner away to Torino. Their low goals-against tally has also owed something to their goalkeeper's saves. Over their last three league matches with expected-goals-against data, Roma have allowed 4.79 xGA but conceded only twice. Mile Svilar made saves against Inter, while at Como Roma focused on defending after Malen was sent off and Pierluigi Gollini's saves helped preserve a clean sheet. Those numbers alone do not mean they will keep limiting opponents' chances to the same degree in this match.
Both teams played in the Champions League on October 20 local time and had four days to rest. Napoli beat Bodø/Glimt 4-3, while Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0. The gap between matches is the same, but their starting line-ups and options off the bench differ. Amir Rrahmani is a doubt for Napoli with a fever, while David Neres and Alisson Santos are also out. Paulo Dybala, Manu Koné, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Mile Svilar are not in Roma's squad.
Team SSC Napoli: Availability concern, Rrahmani is a doubt / What changes in the match: if he misses out, another player will have to organise the central defence and contest aerial balls SSC Napoli: Availability, Neres and Alisson Santos are out / What changes in the match: Napoli have fewer wide attacking options to bring on in the second half AS Roma: Availability, Dybala, Koné, Pellegrini and Svilar are out / What changes in the match: the players responsible for through balls, midfield pressing and forward runs, linking play in the second line and guarding the goal will change
Allegri adjusts his formation to the opposition, but against teams that press high he has also dropped deeper and looked to move forward after winning the ball. Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma have kept up their man-to-man press away from home, with defenders following opponents high up the pitch. If Roma win the ball from Napoli's build-up, Malen could immediately get a chance to score. If Napoli play through that press, Roma's defenders may have to deal with the forwards left upfield while outnumbered.
Past meetings need to be viewed in light of the current players and coaches. Napoli are unbeaten in their last eight home league matches against Roma, with four wins and four draws, but none of those games came with Allegri in charge of Napoli. The most recent was a 2-2 draw at home last February. Malen scored both of Roma's goals, and Roma conceded an equaliser after taking the lead twice. Antonio Conte was Napoli's coach at the time. The scoreline matters less here than Malen's goals and the way Roma gave up their lead, both of which are relevant to this match.
2. Match-up analysis
The key battle is Napoli's build-up from the back against Roma's first line of pressure. If Roma use their 3-4-2-1 to mark man to man, their back three will be matched up against Rasmus Winther Højlund, Matteo Politano and Noa Lang. That gives Roma a chance to win the ball high and turn it into a shot, but when Napoli break through with a pass or two, there may be fewer players left to cover the space behind the defence. Napoli have conceded after errors in possession at the back against Como and Villarreal, so handling the press will be a risk. If Rrahmani is out and Rafa Marín and Benoît Badiashile form a central-defensive pairing for the first time, their passing choices and their ability to reset their defensive positions together immediately after losing the ball will both be tested. That is a possible line-up, not a confirmed one.
Kevin De Bruyne's position will shape Napoli's response. If he receives the ball deeper in midfield, a Roma player from the second line may step out to him, leaving space for Napoli to pass to Højlund or use McTominay's run into the box. De Bruyne started from a deeper position and got involved in Napoli's attack against Frosinone, then set up McTominay against Bodø/Glimt. But if Napoli lose the ball while De Bruyne is deep, Roma can start an attack close to their goal. Napoli also gave up a dangerous shot after De Bruyne lost possession against Fiorentina. If Stanislav Lobotka starts, De Bruyne could receive the ball further forward, though Lobotka would then have to cope directly with Roma's press.
For Roma, the key is getting the ball to Malen in attack. Dybala played the vertical pass for Malen's winner against Torino and switched play before Roma's opener against Inter. Matías Soulé and Rodrigo Mora could share those duties this time. Malen scored twice in quick succession in the second half against Real Madrid after receiving passes from the pair, so that route to goal is still there. However, the evidence of Soulé and Mora combining in that way against a strong opponent is concentrated in that second half. If Bryan Cristante plays behind Malen, he can help with pressing and defending, but Soulé will shoulder more of the responsibility for feeding Malen forward passes.
Koné's absence also affects movement in Napoli's midfield. He presses opposing midfielders, carries the ball forward and, against Inter, made runs into the box to score twice. Possible replacements Marten de Roon and Niccolò Pisilli can press as well. The question is whether either can take on both the job of tracking McTominay's late runs into the box and the job of carrying the ball forward after winning it, as Koné does. If a Roma midfielder follows McTominay deep, De Bruyne could find space to receive the ball.
On the flanks, the positioning of Roma's wing-backs and the defensive work of Napoli's wide forwards will affect where counterattacks begin. When Roma's wing-backs push up, Politano and Lang may have to track them back. Napoli could then win the ball with Højlund waiting up front on his own, as happened against Arsenal when they struggled to sustain their counters. If Napoli leave their wide forwards higher and play through Roma's press, Politano and Lang can attack Roma's back three directly. The height at which the coaches ask their wide players to defend can produce very different outcomes against the same man-to-man press.
Set pieces offer Napoli a route to goal in the second half. Politano's corner led to a goal against Fiorentina, and his cross set up McTominay's header against Bodø/Glimt. Roma went ahead against Real Madrid but then failed to deal with aerial balls and second balls from a series of corners, and eventually lost. That kind of situation could also test Gollini, who is expected to replace Svilar. If Rrahmani is out, Napoli will also be missing a player for aerial contests at attacking and defensive set pieces. Roma scored the winner in a crowded corner situation against Genoa, so set pieces are not an advantage for only one side.
Once a goal goes in, both teams' game management will come under scrutiny again. Napoli have lost all three matches this season in which they conceded first. Against Inter, they brought on an extra defender while leading, then conceded an equaliser and a winner. Roma also let leads slip, at 2-0 against Inter and 3-1 against Real Madrid. Gasperini has made several changes around the 60-minute mark to refresh the press, but without Dybala and Pellegrini it will be harder to improve their attacking link-up with substitutions. Napoli are also short of wide attacking options off the bench with Neres and Alisson Santos out. The second-half shift will depend less on how many players come on than on how well those still on the pitch can sustain the press and attack.
3. Final view and prediction
We think Napoli are slightly more likely to withstand Roma's early press without conceding, then take the lead through a counterattack or a Politano set piece. Roma still have the high press and Malen's runs to threaten, so we do not expect Napoli to keep a clean sheet. Both teams have conceded after going ahead, and even if Roma come back into the match, McTominay's runs and Napoli's set pieces should create further chances in the second half.
The market gives Roma a slight edge away from home on the strength of their higher league position, unbeaten record and low goals-against tally. But that clean-sheet record includes saves from Svilar, who will miss this match, and Roma's recent two wins without Dybala and Koné came against Genoa and Slovan Bratislava. Roma's press remains a threat, but those two matches do not show whether they can still get the ball to Malen after pressing or change their attack in the second half. We rate Napoli's chance of winning higher than the market does.
Our score prediction is 2-1 or 3-2 to Napoli. If they play through Roma's first press, Højlund and the wide forwards can face Roma's back three on equal numbers. Politano's delivery and McTominay's runs fit the pattern of Roma conceding in the second half after taking the lead. Napoli need to close the points gap and are likely to keep pushing forward in the second half. The risk is that if Rrahmani is out and Napoli lose the ball at the back under the early press, letting Malen score first, they will have to overturn a deficit for the first time this season, having lost all three matches in which they conceded first.
