[2026-27 UEFA Europa League] SL Benfica vs Celtic: Preview and analysis Kick-off: 15 October, 19:00 UTC
SL Benfica and Celtic meet at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon for the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase at 19:00 Korea time on 16 October. After beating AC Milan away in their opener, SL Benfica will look to add to their points at home. Celtic, who lost to Ferencváros, are chasing their first points in Europe. The key question is how long Celtic’s reshuffled defence can hold out against SL Benfica’s wide attacks.
1. Match overview and team form
In the data centre standings dated 14 October, SL Benfica are seventh with one win, two goals scored and none conceded. Celtic are 28th after one defeat, with one goal scored and three conceded. SL Benfica won 2-0 away to AC Milan, while Celtic lost 3-1 at home to Ferencváros. The opening results favour SL Benfica, but it will be difficult to reproduce the same approach they used against AC Milan. They gave up possession, finishing with 41%, and scored through pressing and quick forward moves. SL Benfica are likely to have the ball for longer against Celtic.
Category Europa League opener: SL Benfica won 2-0 away to AC Milan / Celtic lost 1-3 at home to Ferencváros Competitive matches this season: SL Benfica 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 15 matches / Celtic 8 wins and 3 defeats in 11 matches Last 10 competitive matches: SL Benfica 9 wins and 1 defeat, 30 goals scored and 7 conceded / Celtic 7 wins and 3 defeats, 20 goals scored and 11 conceded
The quality of the opposition also shapes the gap in recent form. SL Benfica have won nine of their last 10, but lost 3-1 away to FC Porto, one of their toughest opponents. Their expected goals in that match were 0.84, showing they did not create enough chances. By contrast, they scored twice away to AC Milan with 0.65 expected goals. Against strong opponents, chances can be scarce, and the result has depended on whether SL Benfica made the most of them.
Their latest home match against Vitória de Guimarães offers a closer example of how this game might unfold. SL Benfica concentrated their attacks down the left in the first half and Samuel Dahl exchanged passes with Vangelis Pavlidis before scoring the opener. They finished with 23 shots and 2.76 expected goals, but scored twice. Their attack slowed after the break and passing errors increased, before substitute Heorhii Sudakov added a second goal in a 2-0 win. Manager Marco Silva has spoken directly about the team’s drop in energy late in recent matches. Even if SL Benfica control the ball and create chances, we cannot assume they will build a lead early.
Celtic bounced back from consecutive defeats to Ferencváros and Rangers with a 2-0 away win over Motherwell. They increased their attacking threat with 25 shots and 15 on target, and were praised for pressing together and helping out in defence. Still, they scored twice from 2.85 expected goals, and their expected goals against were 1.05. Whether the attacking tempo they rediscovered in the league and their clean sheet carry over to a trip to SL Benfica is another matter. Celtic lost 4-1 away to LASK in Europe this season, and against Ferencváros they conceded twice in quick succession, once in first-half stoppage time and again just after the break.
Celtic have significant selection concerns. First-choice centre-back Cameron Carter-Vickers is out with a hamstring injury, and right-back Alistair Johnston is also listed as unavailable by the data centre. Auston Trusty could replace Carter-Vickers, but he returned to training on 14 October after missing the Motherwell match. Another option, Dane Murray, has played 236 minutes this season and partnered Liam Scales at centre-back against Motherwell. Whoever starts, Celtic cannot use their usual Carter-Vickers and Scales pairing.
Celtic’s attacking options are limited too. Yang Hyun-jun, who scored in September, has a hamstring problem, while Camilo Durán did not travel with the squad because his wife is expecting a child. Manager Martin O’Neill said Durán could travel to Lisbon separately, but his availability remained uncertain on the eve of the match. If Durán does not start, Hyseum Hassan is the likeliest option on the right. Jota and Shin Myeong-hwa are not on the European squad list, which also limits Celtic’s attacking substitutions.
SL Benfica are likely to be without Jakub Kamiński and Daniel Banjaqui. Kamiński scored and assisted against AC Milan, and dropped back without the ball to form a five-man defence. His absence puts more responsibility on the other attacking midfielders to press and help the team transition into defence. Alexander Bah, who has trained without restrictions, could take Banjaqui’s place at right-back. Silva has confirmed Anatoliy Trubin will start and said he will manage the centre-backs’ minutes. The rest of the lineup is still a prediction, but he has indicated that he does not plan to make sweeping changes.
The teams also have different schedules after this match. Celtic host Hearts in the league three days later. O’Neill has spoken about both the league’s importance and the desire to progress in the Europa League, but has not said whether he plans to rotate. SL Benfica have no match at the weekend, with their next game on 23 October. Both teams last played on 11 October in local time, so there is little difference in their rest before this match. Rain is not forecast in Lisbon at kick-off, and winds are expected to be light, so the weather should not have a major effect on the game.
Celtic have lost all four of their previous away games against Benfica. Their last meeting, though, was in the 2012-13 season, and both teams have changed managers and squads since then. Current lineups and the attacking and defensive moments from recent matches matter more than that old head-to-head record.
2. Matchup analysis
If SL Benfica have more of the ball, they are likely to test Celtic most often down the visitors’ right. Against Vitória de Guimarães, Gianluca Prestianni moved from the middle towards the left while left-back Dahl pushed high. Their passing on that flank forced the opposition defence to shift across, and Dahl’s run led to the opening goal. Souffian El Karouani could start instead of Dahl this time. He also set up a goal with a low cross from the flank against AC Milan. The player making the link-up may change depending on the lineup, but SL Benfica can still use their left-back’s forward runs.
Colby Donovan and Hassan are the likeliest players to face them on that side. O’Neill has previously criticised Hassan for drifting out of position when Celtic do not have the ball. If Hassan does not track SL Benfica’s left-back, Donovan will have to deal with both the advancing full-back and the attacking midfielder moving wide. If a centre-back comes across to help, Celtic will also have to adjust their positions in the middle of the penalty area. Against Ferencváros, Celtic conceded to a runner who got between the centre-backs, then allowed another goal to a player who broke in behind Donovan as he pushed forward. Their new centre-back pairing will have to cover both spaces without Carter-Vickers.
On SL Benfica’s right, Dodi Lukébakio will face Kieran Tierney. Lukébakio cut inside from the flank and hit two left-footed shots against AC Milan, scoring with the second. If Tierney holds his defensive position to deal with those runs, Celtic lose a player who can support attacks on the left. If he pushes forward instead, SL Benfica can target the space behind him. Celtic need Tierney’s forward runs too. Against Ferencváros, he got in behind down the left and set up Mika Bauer’s equaliser. The movements of these two players could create chances for both teams.
When Celtic win the ball back, Tierney’s runs and Benjamin Nygren’s link-up play will matter. Nygren leads Celtic’s player stats this season with 5 goals and 4 assists. If SL Benfica’s João Palhinha limits the time he has to receive the ball centrally and look forward, Celtic will need to build their attacks down the flanks. Durán would give them a fast outlet on the right if he starts, but if he joins late or cannot play, they cannot count on repeating the attacks he helped build with Yang in September. If Durán comes on in the second half, he could target the space left behind SL Benfica’s full-backs when they push forward.
SL Benfica’s pressing is another variable. Against AC Milan, they forced attacking opportunities from a short distance by pressing the opposition’s passes across the back. They could win the ball in dangerous areas again if Celtic’s new centre-back pairing and Callum McGregor play backwards in their own half. But Kamiński, who helped lead the press against AC Milan, is out, so we should not expect the same moments to repeat. Sudakov and the players around him will need to press quickly after losing the ball.
As the match goes on, the managers’ substitutions could change the pattern. Celtic conceded around half-time in both of their European defeats. If SL Benfica are ahead at that point, O’Neill could add attackers as he did against Ferencváros, but he has fewer forwards available this time. Silva has made changes around the 65th to 70th minute in recent matches to deal with the team’s drop in energy after the break. If Pavlidis does not start, the league’s eight-goal top scorer could come on later. If Celtic push players forward to chase the game, SL Benfica’s substitutes may find space behind the defence.
The opposite scenario is also possible. If SL Benfica make changes to the lineup similar to their AC Milan setup, Dahl and Pavlidis, who combined for the opening goal against Vitória de Guimarães, may not be on the pitch from the start. If the new combination keeps the ball but struggles to create chances out wide or misses the chances it gets, Celtic could reach the period when SL Benfica tend to tire in the second half with the score level. Tierney could then run in behind Bah, or Durán could come on and drive forward quickly, giving Celtic a better chance to score. That is why avoiding a concession early matters so much for Celtic.
3. Final verdict and prediction
Our score predictions are SL Benfica 3-1 or 3-0 Celtic. If Durán plays, we expect Celtic to pull one back in the second half for a 3-1 scoreline. If he does not, we favour a 3-0 SL Benfica win. The likely pattern is that SL Benfica attack down the flanks and target Celtic’s new centre-back pairing to take the lead around half-time, before Celtic commit more players forward and SL Benfica’s substitutes add another goal. If Durán plays, Celtic could also score on the counter after the 60th minute as SL Benfica tire, but their current attacking options off the bench make it difficult to sustain a comeback.
SL Benfica’s full-backs and Prestianni can test both the right side and the middle of a Celtic defence without Carter-Vickers. Silva has options such as Pavlidis and Echeverri to bring on in attack, while O’Neill has fewer substitutions available because of injuries and players left off the European squad list. Even if Celtic get through the half-time period when they conceded in both recent European defeats, SL Benfica can keep attacking with their substitutes.
The market and our match lean point in the same direction. The market gives more weight to a lower-scoring game based on the teams’ usual goal patterns, while we expect Celtic to find a second-half consolation if Durán plays. The key assumption behind this forecast is that SL Benfica score first around half-time. If Celtic get through that spell without conceding, they will have less need to push forward in a hurry, and SL Benfica’s drop in energy after the break could turn this into a one-goal game.
