[26-27 UEFA Europa League] TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş preview and analysis Kick-off: 15 October, 19:00 UTC
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim host Beşiktaş at the SNP Arena in Sinsheim on 16 October at 04:00 Korea time for their second league-phase match in the UEFA Europa League. It will be their first competitive meeting. The home side’s poor Bundesliga form contrasts with the visitors’ position near the top of the Süper Lig, but the key may be how each team attacks the opposition defence immediately after winning the ball.
1. Match overview and team form
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season to qualify for European competition, but they sit 17th after taking one win and four losses from their first five league matches this season. They lost 2-0 away to OFI Crete in their Europa League opener and have now lost three competitive matches in a row. Beşiktaş are second in the Süper Lig and began their Europa League campaign with a 4-1 win over Marseille. Hoffenheim need to end their losing run and collect their first points in Europe, while Beşiktaş will look to build on the Marseille result and make a strong start to the league phase.
League standings: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 17th in the Bundesliga, 3 points; Beşiktaş second in the Süper Lig, 15 points Europa League opener: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim lost 2-0 away to OFI Crete; Beşiktaş beat Marseille 4-1 at home Last 10 competitive matches: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 17 goals scored and 22 conceded; Beşiktaş 7 wins, 3 losses, 23 goals scored and 10 conceded
These last-10-match records are based on scores listed by the data centre. Hoffenheim’s tally includes their final three matches of last season, while Beşiktaş’s includes Europa League qualifiers. That makes it difficult to judge the teams’ current strength from their recent results alone.
Hoffenheim’s poor form has been shaped by their inability to hold leads. They scored first against Köln and Borussia Dortmund in the league this season but lost both matches. Against Hamburg, they came back to lead 2-1 before losing 3-2. Of the 15 goals they have conceded across six league and Europa League matches, nine came after the 60th minute. Those goals cannot all be put down to fitness. Bernardo was sent off against Hamburg, while defensive turnovers, a failure to deal with the opposing goalkeeper’s long ball and poor set-piece defending each led to goals in other matches. Still, the defence has repeatedly struggled to respond when opponents bring on fresh attackers in the second half.
Their attack has not been as poor as their results suggest. Hoffenheim had 21 shots against OFI Crete and attempted 22 against Paderborn 07. The problem has been turning possession into goals: in two matches where they had the ball for long spells, their final passes and shots from central areas did not produce enough. By contrast, in their only league win this season, against Stuttgart, they played forward immediately after winning the ball and created both of Adam Hložek’s goals. Head coach Christian Ilzer also described Beşiktaş as a possession-oriented team and expects a different kind of match from the previous ones. If Beşiktaş push forward, Hoffenheim can look to repeat the approach that worked against Stuttgart.
Beşiktaş scored against Marseille through a high press, quick attacks after winning the ball and a corner. But in their recent match against Kocaelispor, they led 2-1 at half-time before the opposition exploited the space behind their defence in the second half. The data centre’s split expected-goals figures also show Beşiktaş ahead 1.75 to 0.43 in the first half, then behind 0.49 to 1.08 after the break. One match is not enough to claim they regularly tire in the second half. They actually scored three times after half-time against Marseille. The point to watch here is that Kocaelispor got in behind while Beşiktaş were still trying to attack despite leading.
Both teams have attacking absences. Hoffenheim will be without centre-back Albian Hajdari and winger Patrick Wimmer. Kabak and Machida are likely to start in central defence, but that pairing also conceded after failing to clear the ball following a set piece against Hamburg. Beşiktaş are missing striker Dušan Vlahović and right-sided attacker Václav Černý. Vlahović’s absence affects more than his finishing in the box; his movement also draws defenders away. Without Černý, another player will need to take on the right-sided link-up he built with Murillo. The predicted line-up includes Oh Hyeon-gyu up front, with Poku and Trossard in attack. This is a predicted XI, not an official announcement.
The teams have no competitive head-to-head record. They drew 0-0 in a friendly in 2016, but that tells us little about the teams under their current managers and with their current squads. Hoffenheim are at home in Sinsheim, though it is unclear whether the crowd will give them their usual advantage. German outlet SWR expects strong support from Turkish fans, but the actual make-up of the crowd will not be known until matchday. Hoffenheim have had five days off since their previous match and play at home, while Beşiktaş have had four days to rest before travelling to Germany. Beşiktaş also face an away match against Trabzonspor four days later.
2. Match-up analysis
The key contest is Hoffenheim’s through balls against the space behind Beşiktaş’s defensive line. Against Stuttgart, Hoffenheim’s Conte and Kabak intercepted passes and immediately played forward, setting up both of Hložek’s goals. Beşiktaş allowed a one-on-one after a single pass caught their defence out of shape against Marseille, and Kocaelispor also got shots away with runs in behind during the second half. If Beşiktaş keep possession high up the pitch away from home, Hložek could find room to attack. A key question is whether Emirhan Topçu, who is expected to cover that area, can cut out those passes.
That depends on how Beşiktaş choose to play. Vincenzo Italiano said his side would try to play much as they do at home, while also acknowledging they could sit deeper and let the opposition come on to them. If Beşiktaş drop their defensive line after taking the lead, there will be less space for Hoffenheim to run into. The home side would then need to break down a set defence, as they tried against OFI Crete and Paderborn 07. They had plenty of shots across those two matches but scored just once. For Hoffenheim, the key is less about how long they keep possession and more about where they win it and how quickly they move forward.
The same contest could work in the other direction. Beşiktaş made it difficult for Marseille to play out from the back with their early pressure, then scored from attacks launched immediately after winning possession. Hoffenheim conceded against Dortmund after Abdullahu lost the ball in his own half. Abdullahu and Berger will face Beşiktaş’s first line of pressure here too. If they evade it and play forward, Hložek could get a chance. If they lose the ball in their own half, Orkun Kökçü and Beşiktaş’s attacking midfielders could start an attack close to goal. Where possession changes hands will determine which side benefits from the press.
Beşiktaş have a clearer route to goal from set pieces. Against Marseille, Murillo headed in a corner from Orkun Kökçü. Hoffenheim have conceded four goals from set pieces this season, three of them after failing to clear the second ball. They also conceded twice from set-piece situations against Hamburg with Kabak and Machida starting together in central defence. Even without Vlahović, Orkun Kökçü’s delivery and Murillo’s aerial threat remain. Hoffenheim need to deal with the first ball and then get to the second ball before their opponents.
Vlahović and Černý’s absences mean Beşiktaş may not attack in quite the same way. Černý played a low pass for Murillo after his forward run in the build-up to the opener against Kocaelispor, and Vlahović has scored in each of his last four league appearances. Against Marseille, Oxlade-Chamberlain won the ball and Poku finished the resulting attack. Trossard can contribute from wide areas or through the middle, and Oh Hyeon-gyu is another option up front. Still, it is not clear how well those players can cover the roles of Vlahović and Černý if they start together. Beşiktaş may create chances, but their finishing remains a separate question.
Second-half substitutions could also swing the match. Hoffenheim have conceded frequently after the 60th minute this season, while Beşiktaş have fewer attacking options to bring on with Vlahović out. Hoffenheim can turn to Kramarić and Asllani from the bench. If they take the lead, Ilzer could also bring on a defender to protect it, as he did against Stuttgart. Beşiktaş’s set pieces will remain a threat regardless of how many attacking substitutes they have. If Beşiktaş go ahead, Hoffenheim are likely to commit more players forward, leaving them to deal with Poku’s counter-attacks. For both teams, how they manage the game after the opening goal could shape what follows at both ends.
3. Verdict and prediction
We lean towards a 2-1 Beşiktaş win. They can look for an early goal from an Orkun Kökçü set piece or by winning the ball in the opposition half. Hoffenheim also have a route to a goal if Hložek can run in behind Beşiktaş’s defence. But if the home side commit more players forward to chase a result, Beşiktaş could win the ball again and break forward, or add a goal from a set piece. Given Beşiktaş’s attacking absences, a narrow win with both teams scoring looks more likely than a big margin.
Hoffenheim’s counter-attacks are most effective when Beşiktaş push their defensive line high, but the visitors can adjust their line after taking the lead. Beşiktaş’s set pieces can target the loose-ball defending that has repeatedly cost the home side, whatever approach Hoffenheim take. Hoffenheim have let leads slip several times this season, and when they push forward to get back into a match they also have to guard against counter-attacks. Those factors tilt the contest towards the visitors.
The market favours Hoffenheim based on their quality last season and home advantage. Last season’s form is a valid reference point, though the home advantage may be smaller than usual if Turkish fans provide strong support. The main difference between our view and the market is the direct clash between Hoffenheim’s struggles to clear loose balls after set pieces and Beşiktaş’s ability to score that way. If Kabak and Machida clear those balls reliably and Beşiktaş keep their defensive line high for long spells, Hložek’s runs in behind could swing the match towards Hoffenheim.
