[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Al Wasl vs Al Ahli Saudi: Analysis and Preview Kick-off: 12 October, 16:00 UTC
Al Wasl host Al Ahli Saudi at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai in the second round of the AFC Champions League Elite league phase, with kick-off at 16:00 UTC on 12 October. After losing their opener, Al Wasl are looking for their first points at home, while Al Ahli Saudi, who drew with Pakhtakor, are chasing their first win in the competition. Reports that the visitors’ first-choice goalkeeper will miss the match, along with limits on the availability of their defenders, could shape how both teams attack.
1. Match overview and team form
Al Wasl lost 2-1 away to Al Qadsiah, while Al Ahli Saudi drew 1-1 at home with Pakhtakor. Neither side has won in the competition yet. Al Wasl played in the AFC Champions League 2 last season before stepping up to the Elite this term. Al Ahli Saudi are two-time champions, but Matthias Jaissle left in August and Marino Pusic took charge. Their past titles alone do not tell us how they will perform away from home now.
Al Wasl’s recent three-match winning run came in the League Cup during the international break, when several internationals were away. They made good use of their squad and scored nine goals across those three games, but all their opponents were UAE sides. In their last match, away to Khor Fakkan, Al Wasl conceded first despite their opponents playing with 10 men from the 32nd minute. Mehdi Taremi’s 77th-minute header and a 94th-minute goal from Bouftini completed a 2-1 comeback, but those late goals are not a reliable guide to what we will see today.
Their last two meetings with leading Saudi sides had a different outcome. Al Wasl lost 4-0 to Al Nassr at Zabeel Stadium, then fell 2-1 to Al Qadsiah in their opening match in this competition. They reached half-time at 0-0 against Al Qadsiah, but conceded to a header from a cross in the 57th minute. As Al Wasl pushed for an equaliser, they conceded again on the counter in the 61st minute. That is the sort of lapse Rui Vitoria said his side must avoid when he spoke before the match, after they lost concentration for a short spell (Emarat Al Youm, 11 October).
Al Ahli Saudi also won their last match, beating Al Fateh 4-0 away. Trincão scored twice, with Ivan Toney and Ziyad Al Johani also on the scoresheet. Pusic said he had rested several players with the Al Wasl game in mind (Sharq Riyadh, 9 October). Al Fateh, though, were a lower-table side who changed coaches the day before the match. The big win showed the forwards can score, but it does not prove the away defence is settled against stronger opposition. In Pusic’s last 10 matches in charge, Al Ahli Saudi have gone 3-1-0 at home and 2-4 away.
There is a more immediate question over the visitors’ defence. Al Riyadiya reported, citing sources, that first-choice goalkeeper Edouard Mendy was injured and would not travel to Dubai (11 October). The official line-up has not been announced, but Abdulrahman Al Sanbi, who kept goal against Al Fateh, is expected to start again. He kept a clean sheet in that match. One game against opponents who created few dangerous chances is not enough to judge his handling of crosses.
Al Ahli Saudi players Edouard Mendy: Pre-match status: reported injured and unavailable. Possible defensive impact: Abdulrahman Al Sanbi is likely to start. Zakaria Hawsawi: Pre-match status: the club is targeting a return on 15 October. Possible defensive impact: a change at full-back is possible. Roger Ibañez: Pre-match status: the medical staff will allow him to play only part of the match. Possible defensive impact: the centre-back pairing may change.
Hawsawi’s chances of playing look slim after his injury in late September, with a return targeted for the Al Nassr match on 15 October. Ibañez joined the squad in Dubai, and Pusic will decide whether to start him, but the medical staff have limited the minutes he can play (Al Riyadiya, 11 October). Whether Ibañez starts or comes off the bench, the centre-back partnership could change during the match. Matheus Gonçalves, who plays behind the striker, also picked up a knee injury against Al Fateh and is a doubt. Eduard Spertsyan, with one goal and three assists in seven league appearances, could take his place.
Al Wasl have no confirmed absentees. Vitoria said he could also call on the internationals who returned from the Gulf Cup (Emarat Al Youm, 11 October). Nicolas Gimenez was left out of the squad for Al Wasl’s last League Cup match, while Serginho and Siaka Sidibe came on as substitutes. If they return to the starting XI, Al Wasl could line up much as they did against Al Qadsiah, with Gimenez behind Taremi. Against Khor Fakkan, Vitoria started Taremi and Renato Junior together up front, so the shape for this match remains open.
The teams have met only once, in September 2024 at this ground. Al Ahli Saudi won 2-0, but both managers have since changed. That result does not explain how the teams match up now. Al Wasl have had four days off since their last match, compared with three for Al Ahli Saudi. The visitors have also crossed a border, but Pusic rested players in their last game. Al Ahli Saudi face Al Nassr three days after this match. The hot, humid evening conditions in Dubai are familiar to both sides, who play their seasons in the Gulf.
2. Match-up analysis
Set pieces and crosses from wide areas look like Al Wasl’s clearest routes to goal. Against Al Qadsiah, Bouftini and Adrielson both got headers away from Nicolas Gimenez’s corners. Taremi’s header against Khor Fakkan brought the equaliser. The DataCentre player stats show Adrielson has started five times this season and scored four goals. That alone does not explain how all his goals came about, but it does show that the centre-backs are contributing in front of goal. Serginho and full-back Pedro Malheiro have also played a part in the wide attack, with four and three assists respectively.
That route to goal lines up with chances Al Ahli Saudi have conceded away from home recently. Against Mamelodi Sundowns, they let in two goals from Nuno Santos headers following crosses from wide areas. The first came after a corner and a cross; the decisive goal in the 80th minute also came from a cross. Mendy has been reported out for today, and Hawsawi is unlikely to feature. When Al Wasl deliver from wide, the goalkeeper’s handling of crosses and the defenders’ ability to deal with aerial threats in the box will matter. Al Sanbi’s clean sheet against Al Fateh does not settle that question.
At the other end, Toney gives Al Wasl’s defence a difficult decision. Pusic usually plays him up front in a 4-2-3-1, but against Mamelodi Sundowns Toney moved outside the penalty area to link play. His low cross from the left set up Firas Al-Buraikan’s equaliser, while a through ball created a one-on-one chance for Trincão against the goalkeeper. Toney has scored 11 goals in seven Saudi Pro League appearances this season, and he also helps the players behind him get into dangerous positions.
If an Al Wasl centre-back steps out to follow Toney, the defensive midfielder and the remaining defenders must track the runners behind him. If the centre-back holds his position, Toney may have time to receive the ball and link play. How well Sidibe and Abdulrazak Popoola limit passes into Toney will affect that choice. Al Ahli Saudi could also break quickly through Toney into the space behind an Al Wasl full-back who has just joined the attack. Al Wasl’s second goal conceded against Al Qadsiah, after they pushed for an equaliser, showed the danger of losing the ball while committed forward.
How the first half unfolds will depend in part on how far each team is willing to push forward. Al Ahli Saudi were praised for letting Mamelodi Sundowns have possession in the first half of their away match, then attacking the space between the opposition’s midfield and defence at pace (Goal.com English, 19 September). If Pusic uses a similar approach, Al Wasl may have the ball at home and create chances for crosses and corners. They will need to make sure that Toney and the attacking midfielders do not have space to break into as soon as an attack ends. Taremi has hinted that Al Wasl will play differently in the league, but he has not given away the details. If Al Wasl hold their full-backs back, Al Ahli Saudi will have less room for counter-attacks.
The score at half-time could also change the demands of the second half. Al Ahli Saudi have won all five matches in which they led at half-time under Pusic, and lost all three in which they trailed. The level of opposition and the venue differed across those games, so we cannot say the half-time score caused those results. Still, Al Ahli Saudi’s record when chasing away from home adds weight to the threat Al Wasl pose from early set pieces. If Al Ahli Saudi score first, Al Wasl may commit more players forward, creating further chances for Toney and the attacking midfielders.
In the second half, the defensive pairing and minutes management could become important. Against Mamelodi Sundowns, Al Ahli Saudi were assessed as having dropped deeper after the break and lost access to the spaces they had attacked in the first half. Against Pakhtakor, they conceded in the 86th minute before equalising in stoppage time. Al Wasl have Leandro Spadacio, who scored in stoppage time against Al Qadsiah, and Fábio Lima, who scored an 89th-minute winner against Al Jazira in May, when Pusic was in charge there. That May match featured a different squad under Pusic, so it is not a direct preview of this one. It does show that Al Wasl have players who can score late.
If Al Wasl add attackers in the second half while Al Ahli Saudi have to manage Ibañez’s minutes, the home side could test a changed defence again with crosses and set pieces. That approach would also leave space for counter-attacks through Toney. For Al Wasl’s late pressure to pay off, they will need to create chances while limiting the passes into the space behind their defenders immediately after losing the ball.
3. Verdict and prediction
Both sides have clear ways to target the opposition’s weaknesses. Al Ahli Saudi can use Toney as a link and send runners from midfield to test Al Wasl’s transition defence. Al Wasl can use Gimenez’s set pieces and crosses from wide areas to challenge the replacement goalkeeper and a defence that may change during the match. We expect both teams to score, with the result decided by a single goal.
We give Al Wasl the edge because of the chances they may create late in the game. Vitoria has added attackers when his side has been behind, and Pusic’s team dropped deeper in the second half against Mamelodi Sundowns before conceding a decisive goal from a cross. Ibañez is expected to have limited minutes this time, which could mean a change to the centre-back pairing during the match. If it remains close until then, we think Al Wasl’s crosses and late runs have a good chance of producing the winning goal.
The market gives more weight to Al Ahli Saudi’s record in the competition, an attack built around Toney, and Al Wasl’s recent losses to leading Saudi sides. The reported absences have also been factored in to some extent, but we think the market has not fully accounted for how Al Wasl’s main route to goal will test the goalkeeper and defence in the box. That does not erase Al Ahli Saudi’s attacking threat. If Al Wasl concede first and push their full-backs forward in pursuit of an equaliser, a quick counter could swing the match towards the visitors sooner than we expect.
Our predicted score is 3-2 or 2-1 to Al Wasl. Al Ahli Saudi may score through a counter-attack involving Toney, but Al Wasl can respond with set pieces and crosses, then find one more goal when the visitors’ defensive pairing changes in the second half. If Al Sanbi and Demiral deal comfortably with the early corners and wide free kicks, the main premise behind our prediction becomes weaker.
