[2026 UEFA Nations League] Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands: Match Preview Kick-off: October 6, 23:00 KST
Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands meet at Astana Arena at 23:00 KST on October 6 for their fourth UEFA Nations League League C Group 3 match. It is a rematch of September’s 1-1 draw in Tórshavn. Bottom side Kazakhstan badly need their first win, while the Faroe Islands have drawn all three matches and are looking for a first victory to stay in the race near the top.
1. Match overview and team form
After three matches, Kazakhstan are fourth with one point from a draw and two defeats. The Faroe Islands are third on three points after three straight 1-1 draws. Another defeat would leave Kazakhstan five points behind the Faroese. Fourth place does not mean automatic relegation, but Kazakhstan, who dropped from League B last season, need to avoid another home loss. The Faroe Islands are one point behind second-placed Moldova. Coach Eydun Klakstein said a draw would keep them in contention, but their aim is to win.
Teams Kazakhstan: Nations League record, 1 draw and 2 defeats / 3 goals scored, 5 conceded, 1 point Faroe Islands: Nations League record, 3 draws / 3 goals scored, 3 conceded, 3 points
The main concern for Kazakhstan is how their attack performs against teams that sit deep, more than their recent results. They beat Namibia and Comoros at home in March by shutting down attacks and countering. Against Moldova on October 2, though, they had 65.5% possession and put in 36 crosses against a 5-3-2 defence, yet managed only 4 shots on target. Their deliveries from wide areas were repeatedly cleared. After the match, Johan van ’t Schip admitted that pushing the midfielders forward had not worked and had also made it harder to press after losing the ball. Kazakhstan have conceded first in all three matches this campaign and have yet to lead.
The Faroe Islands have created chances without needing much of the ball. In September’s home meeting with Kazakhstan, they had 43% possession but recorded 15 shots, including 10 from inside the box. Against Slovakia, possession was just 34%, but both teams had 15 shots and the Faroese led 11-8 in shots inside the box. Away to Moldova, however, they started in a 5-4-1 with five defenders and managed only 6 team shots. If they add another defender away from home today, it will be harder to match the attacking volume they showed in their two home games.
The Faroe Islands have some key absences. Captain and centre-back Andrias Edmundsson is suspended after accumulating yellow cards, and Adrian Justinussen, who scored the equaliser against Slovakia, has not travelled to Astana. Edmundsson pushed forward into wide areas in September’s meeting with Kazakhstan and set up Árni Samuelsen’s opener. His long pass also started the move for the equaliser against Slovakia. Justinussen came on as a substitute to score. If local outlet KVF’s predicted lineup is right, Samuel Chukwudi will come into defence and Samuelsen will start. Chukwudi played the full 90 minutes away to Moldova, but Edmundsson was in the side then. We will have to see how the Faroese replace Edmundsson’s distribution from the back and Justinussen’s impact off the bench.
Kazakhstan will be without winger Galymzhan Kenzhebek, who is suspended after picking up too many yellow cards. He had 4 shots against Moldova and delivered dangerous balls into the box from wide areas. Azamat Tuyakbayev or Elkhan Astanov could take his place. The federation has announced that Islam Chesnokov and Alibek Kasym will miss this camp through injury. But Bauyrzhan Islamkhan, Temirlan Erlanov and Nuraly Alip, all involved in Kazakhstan’s recent goals, are included in the predicted starting lineup.
Kazakhstan have won one and drawn two of their three competitive meetings with the Faroe Islands, though two of those matches were 2014 World Cup qualifiers. September’s 1-1 draw is a better guide to the teams as they are now. Kazakhstan had more of the ball but only 3 shots inside the box, compared with 10 for the Faroese. The game changed after the Faroe Islands scored in the 14th minute, and Edmundsson, who helped create that goal, is out today. The Faroese also won 1-0 in a neutral-site friendly in 2025, but that result came in different home-and-away circumstances.
The schedule favours Kazakhstan. They stayed in Astana after their home match against Moldova. The Faroe Islands played Slovakia, travelled through Copenhagen and then flew for 7 hours and 30 minutes to Astana, crossing four time zones. If local predictions are right that most of the Slovakia starters will play again, their recovery after the break could matter. Both teams play on artificial turf at home, so the surface itself is familiar to the Faroe Islands.
2. Matchup analysis
Kazakhstan are likely to have most of the ball early on, with the Faroe Islands using five defenders to protect the penalty area. After the Moldova match, van ’t Schip said pushing too many players forward had been a mistake. Ahead of this game, he said his team would be proactive while keeping control. If Ramazan Orazov and Dinmukhamed Karaman start as expected behind Islamkhan, they can help deal with the Faroese’ first pass towards Knudsen when Kazakhstan lose the ball. That would limit how many midfielders Kazakhstan can commit to attacks.
That approach would guard against Faroe Islands counterattacks, but it would not solve Kazakhstan’s task of breaking down a back five. Repeating the same pattern of crosses from wide areas as against Moldova would leave them challenging the Faroe Islands’ three centre-backs over and over. Kenzhebek’s absence also removes one of the regular starters who delivered balls from the flank. Having more possession is a different thing from getting shots close to goal. In September’s meeting, Kazakhstan had 57% possession, but only 3 of their 9 shots came from inside the box.
Kazakhstan have another route to goal through set pieces. Against the Faroe Islands in September, Erlanov headed in an Islamkhan corner. Against Moldova, Alip scored with a header from an Islamkhan free kick. Two of Kazakhstan’s three goals in this campaign have come from defenders. The Faroe Islands have also conceded 2 of their 3 goals from corners. If Kazakhstan’s wing play earns corners or free kicks, the Faroese defence, without Edmundsson, will have to deal with Islamkhan’s delivery and headers from Alip and Erlanov. Still, the fact that many of Kazakhstan’s crosses were cleared does not guarantee they will win enough corners today.
Pétur Knudsen will be important when the Faroe Islands win the ball back. If Kazakhstan press high, the Faroese can send a long ball towards Knudsen and let him hold it up while Samuelsen and Hánus Sørensen move forward. The predicted full-backs, Jóannes Danielsen and Martin Agnarsson, can also join the attack. A predicted 5-4-1 does not mean the Faroe Islands will give up on attacking. At the same time, it is unclear who will provide the forward runs and wide passes Edmundsson supplied from the back. The Faroe Islands’ attacking numbers away to Moldova, when Chukwudi played, are not enough to show he can fill that role.
The opening goal could change both managers’ plans. If Kazakhstan go ahead from a set piece, they could sit deeper, as they have in recent home wins, and look for space behind the Faroe Islands as they push forward. The Faroese would need to send their full-backs on, but Justinussen, who came off the bench to equalise against Slovakia, is unavailable. If the Faroe Islands score first, Kazakhstan will have to commit more players against a back five, as they did against Moldova. The risk of being caught on the counter after losing possession, which concerned van ’t Schip, would then grow.
If it stays 0-0 for a long time, changes are likely. With only one point so far, Kazakhstan have good reason to push for a home win, and van ’t Schip has made several substitutions around the 60-minute mark in all three matches this campaign. The Faroe Islands can keep their defensive shape and wait for counterattacking chances, but if most of the same players start again after the trip, their work on the flanks and their forward runs in the second half will be worth watching. There is no certainty that fatigue will set in, but the Faroese’ ability to turn defence into attack after the break could shape their chances of winning.
3. Verdict and prediction
Our score prediction is 1-0 or 2-0 to Kazakhstan. The hosts may have more of the ball, but they are unlikely to create many chances from open play against the Faroe Islands’ back five. The likeliest route to the opening goal is a set piece earned through wide play, with Alip or Erlanov heading in an Islamkhan delivery. Kazakhstan can look to repeat the goals those two scored, while the Faroe Islands have to defend without captain Edmundsson. If van ’t Schip starts two holding midfielders behind Islamkhan as expected, that could also make it harder for the Faroese to find Knudsen on the counter. The Faroe Islands need to replace both Edmundsson’s distribution from the back and Justinussen’s second-half scoring threat.
The market has kept the Faroe Islands’ chances of winning relatively close to Kazakhstan’s, pointing to their recent unbeaten run and the chances they created in September’s meeting. But Edmundsson, who was central to those attacks, and Justinussen, who scored late against Slovakia, are both out today. We rate the Faroese’ win chances lower than the market does because their previous performances are harder to carry over with this lineup. If Kazakhstan score first, they are likely to focus on protecting the lead and use the space left behind as the Faroe Islands push forward, which makes 1-0 our likelier pick. If Kazakhstan score in the first half and force the Faroese to push their full-backs forward early, a second-half counterattack or another set piece could make it 2-0. This outlook assumes Kazakhstan can take the lead and manage the game. If their midfield pushes on and loses the ball as it did against Moldova, allowing the Faroe Islands to score first on the counter, the prediction changes.
