[2026 UEFA Nations League] Montenegro vs Armenia Preview and Analysis Kickoff: Oct. 6, 03:45 (Korea time)
Montenegro and Armenia meet at Podgorica City Stadium on Oct. 6 at 03:45 Korea time in Matchday 4 of League C, Group 2 of the UEFA Nations League. Montenegro beat Armenia 3-2 in Yerevan a week ago and kept top spot in the group. Both sides are chasing promotion, and in the rematch the way each team created chances last time, along with the changes to both squads since, should decide it.
1. Match overview and team status
After the Oct. 3 games, Montenegro lead the group with 3 wins, 7 goals scored, 4 conceded and 9 points. Armenia sit third with 1 win and 2 losses, 4 scored, 5 conceded and 3 points. Cyprus are between them on 4 points. Cyprus play Latvia in their Matchday 4 game first, so the points gap Armenia face at kickoff could change. Montenegro cannot clinch first place in the group even with a win. Armenia need points to stay in the race for second, and manager Yegishe Melikyan said they have to win to keep their promotion chances high (Armsport.am, Oct. 4).
Three games so far in this tournament Record: Montenegro 3 wins / Armenia 1 win, 2 losses Goals scored and conceded: Montenegro 7 scored, 4 conceded / Armenia 4 scored, 5 conceded Points: Montenegro 9 / Armenia 3
All three Montenegro wins came by one goal. They beat Cyprus 2-1, Armenia 3-2 and Latvia 2-1, and conceded every time. The winners against Cyprus and Armenia came in the 86th and 89th minutes. The attack scored at least twice in every game but could not close out matches early after going ahead. Their last three official home games are 1 win and 2 losses. Two of their wins in this tournament came away from home, so home field alone does not point to a big margin of victory.
Armenia have lost their last four official away games, scoring 1 and conceding 14. Nine of those goals came in a single trip to Portugal. The other three were losses of 0-1 to the Republic of Ireland, 0-2 to Hungary and 0-2 to Cyprus. In the first away game of this tournament, at Cyprus, they failed to score even though the hosts played with 10 men from the 52nd minute. Armenia kept the ball for long spells and attempted 34 crosses, but Cyprus cleared the ball 42 times (BBC, Oct. 2). The recurring away problem is an attack that does not score, not a defence that leaks heavily every game.
In the last meeting the two teams showed different routes to goal. Armenia equalised twice: first through Artur Serobyan's goal from a pass by goalkeeper Ognjen Chancharevich, then through Eduard Spertsyan's long-range shot after he carried the ball forward from near the halfway line. Montenegro went back in front through a shot from Nikola Krstovic, and substitute Aleksa Ratkovic scored the winner in the 89th minute. That match is the only one so far between the two current managers. The 2-2 friendly in 2025 featured different managers on both sides, so it gives little basis for judging how either team will play tonight.
Some players involved in the scoring moves last time will miss this game. Chancharevich went home with a leg muscle problem, and Armenia's right wing-back Artem Vandikyan is out with an ankle ligament injury. Edgar Sevikyan is suspended, and Arthur Garibyan, who scored a second-half goal against Latvia, is doubtful after getting hurt while warming up in the Cyprus game. Serobyan, on the other hand, has served his suspension and can return. For Montenegro, Ratkovic, who scored the winner last time, is suspended through card accumulation. So the substitute who decided that game and the goalkeeper who started Armenia's counter are both missing.
Both teams play again three days after their previous game. Montenegro travelled to Podgorica from Riga and Armenia from Nicosia. There is a gap of about five weeks after this match, so there is little need to rest starters for the next one. Instead, fatigue from the first three games could affect the starting lineup and the substitutions. Manager Mirko Vucinic said his players are very tired and that this is the hardest game of all to pick the starting eleven for (CG Sport, Oct. 4). Vucinic has rotated his defence, but Krstovic and Milutin Osmajic have started all three games.
2. Matchup analysis
Montenegro's clearest target is where their left-sided attack meets Armenia's right-sided defence. Of Montenegro's 44 shots in the three games of this tournament, 34 came inside the penalty area. Left back Risto Radunovic assisted the 3rd-minute opener against Latvia and also sent the ball into the box for the 89th-minute winner against Armenia. Krstovic and Osmajic finish inside the area, and Vasilije Adzic joins the attack just behind them. When Radunovic or Ognjen Gasevic supplies the ball from the left, Armenia's new right wing-back will have to stop it.
Vandikyan's replacement options, Davit Terteryan and Erik Simonyan, have played 38 and 71 minutes for the national team this season. Putting Simonyan on the right leaves fewer backups at centre-back, and using Terteryan means a less experienced player takes the flank. Armenia's centre-back pair of Georgi Harutyunyan and Erik Piloyan remains. If the right-sided centre-back shifts out wide to help the wing-back, the positioning of whoever faces Krstovic and Osmajic in the middle changes too. There is no record that Montenegro focused only on Armenia's right side last time, though. How much this duel matters depends on which side Vucinic chooses to attack.
Armenia's goal also has to deal with attacks inside Montenegro's penalty area. Arsen Beglaryan started in place of Chancharevich against Cyprus, but the goalkeeper for this game has not been announced. Melikyan also mentioned other candidates. For Montenegro, the number of absentees matters less than the fact that both Armenia's right-sided defence, which has to stop balls from the left, and the goalkeeper behind it have changed. Armenia, for their part, need to keep their defence built around Harutyunyan and Piloyan and allow few shots inside the box.
Armenia still have a route through winning the ball after Montenegro push forward. Montenegro had 66% possession in their home game against Cyprus and kept attacking after going ahead. In Yerevan they led 2-1 and then allowed Spertsyan's equaliser. After that game Vucinic criticised the team for pushing forward without protecting the ball and for a midfield positioning error (CG Sport, Sept. 28). Against Latvia they again kept attacking at 2-0 and conceded in the 82nd minute. If Montenegro push their full-backs and midfielders up again, Spertsyan could carry the ball forward or Serobyan could get a chance to run into the space behind the defenders.
For Armenia to use that chance, the first forward pass has to be accurate. Serobyan's goal last time began with a pass from Chancharevich, and this time someone else must take that role. Spertsyan carrying the ball himself and set pieces are other options. Against Latvia he delivered a corner for Harutyunyan's headed goal, and in the earlier friendly against Montenegro he scored a free-kick goal past Vasa Popovic. However, if Montenegro sit deep as Cyprus did and Armenia simply hold the ball for long spells, the number of crosses from the flanks could rise again. Serobyan's return improves Armenia's chances of scoring away, but the space for him to run into and the passes to find him still have to appear.
The second half and the substitutions are where the two managers' choices collide. Vucinic has changed games by adding attackers when his team was behind or level. But Ratkovic, the late winner against Armenia, cannot play this time. Melikyan also sends on attackers early when trailing. After the Cyprus game he explained that he left only three at the back to attack (Sportaran, Oct. 2). If Armenia do the same, Serobyan and the substitute strikers get chances, but Montenegro also get room for another goal. With Montenegro's regular attackers tired from playing every game, which side uses that space first will decide the margin.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
Montenegro are more likely to win. We expect a 2-1 win for the home side. We expect Montenegro to attack Armenia's reshuffled right side with their left back's service from the first half and to get the first two goals through attacks inside the box. Armenia will chase the game, add attackers and pull one back through Serobyan, but with few backup centre-backs we think it will be hard for them to hold off Montenegro's pressure to the end.
The link between Montenegro's supply route and Vandikyan's absence sets the direction of this game. Melikyan reducing his defenders when trailing would also give Montenegro chances to score. However, in the second half where that move is likely, Montenegro's regular attackers will be tired, and Ratkovic, who scored the late winner, is also missing. The market looks at Montenegro leading the group, their three straight wins, the home game and Armenia's absentees, and prices a Montenegro win and a big margin as quite likely. We agree on the direction, but because Montenegro's finishing also weakens in the time Armenia spend attacking, we see a one-goal win as more likely. If Vucinic cuts back on pushing forward once ahead and manages the ball, the space Serobyan looks for shrinks and the outlook of an Armenia consolation goal could change.
