[2026 UEFA Nations League] Belgium vs Turkey: Match Preview Kick-off: October 3, 03:45 (Korea time)
Belgium and Turkey meet at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liège at 03:45 Korea time on October 3 for their third match in Group 1 of League A in the UEFA Nations League. Belgium have 3 points and are looking for their first home win, while Turkey, pointless after 2 straight defeats, need a response before their next away match against Italy. Belgium are expected to enjoy more possession. The key question is whether Turkey can stay compact defensively and create chances from the flanks and set pieces.
1. Match overview and team form
Belgium won 2-0 away to Italy before losing 0-1 at home to France. Turkey have lost 0-1 to France and 1-4 to Italy, both at home. After 6 group matches, the top 2 teams in each group advance to the quarter-finals. If Turkey lose this match too, they will have 3 games left to play with no points. Both teams have away games again 3 days later: Belgium visit group leaders France, while Turkey face Italy again.
Under Mark van Bommel, Belgium have pressed high early to force opponents into passing mistakes. Against Italy, Kevin De Bruyne won the ball and played it to Mika Godts, who opened the scoring. Italy created a close-range shooting chance in the second half, but Senne Lammens kept them out with a save. Belgium’s second goal came when Dodi Lukebakio carried the ball forward from his own half and finished the move. Against France, Belgium’s most dangerous attack also came on a counter led by substitute Lukebakio. Van Bommel’s first 2 matches have shown the value of pressing and quick forward play, but Belgium have yet to face a team while enjoying sustained possession and trying to break down a defense.
Turkey’s 2 defeats have unfolded differently. Against France, they managed 12 shots despite having just 34% possession and kept the score at 0-0 until the 54th minute. Arda Güler’s crosses and corners led to headers from teammates. Against Italy, though, Turkey failed to clear the ball after a corner in the 9th minute and conceded the opener. Italy then repeatedly attacked down Turkey’s left in the 22nd and 27th minutes. Turkey were already 3-0 down after 27 minutes. Vincenzo Montella made 3 changes at half-time, and Barış Alper Yılmaz pulled one back, but Turkey conceded again and lost 1-4. Away from home, Turkey are likely to begin by keeping numbers behind the ball, as they did against France, rather than repeating their approach against Italy.
Teams Belgium: Key absences and selection questions: Diego Moreira is suspended; Romeo Lavia is expected to miss out on a starting place / Likely impact: The right-wing and midfield combinations will change Turkey: Key absences and selection questions: Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are out; Orkun Kökçü is not in the squad / Likely impact: Turkey will have fewer options for building attacks through the middle
Belgium’s Lavia won the ball and played a forward pass to De Bruyne against France. Van Bommel has said he is managing Lavia’s minutes and does not intend to start him in this match. Nicolas Raskin or Hans Vanaken could take his place, but the starting lineup has not been confirmed. Lukebakio or Leandro Trossard, who has returned to training after an injury, could fill the spot on the right in Moreira’s absence. If Lukebakio starts, Van Bommel will have a different option for the impact substitute role that worked well in the first 2 matches. With Thibaut Courtois not in the squad, Lammens is set to start in goal.
Turkey faced France without Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, and Kökçü also did not play in that match. Their absences therefore should not be treated as new losses to the starting lineup since the France game. Salih Özcan and İsmail Yüksek started in midfield against France, forming a pair that protects the defense but offers limited ways to progress the ball through the middle. Uğurcan Çakır, who was sent off against France, served his suspension in the Italy match and is available again. However, it remains to be seen whether Çakır or Altay Bayındır will start in goal.
The countries last met in a 1-1 draw in 2011. Across 11 meetings, they have each won 3 times and drawn 5. But 15 years have passed since that last match, and none of the players from then are still involved. The more relevant evidence for this game is Belgium’s 2 matches under Van Bommel and the defensive shape Montella has chosen in this tournament. Van Bommel acknowledged the pressure to win in front of a sold-out home crowd, while Montella said he would not make winning every match an obligation for his players. Despite competing for the same points, the two coaches are preparing to manage the game differently.
2. Matchup analysis
Belgium’s first task is to break down Turkey’s back five when they have possession. Under Van Bommel, Belgium faced back-four sides in Italy and France, recording 45% and 35% possession respectively. This time, the fullbacks may push forward to stretch the attack, giving De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere more time to link up through the middle. Turkey are likely to respond by dropping their wingbacks into the defensive line, with Özcan and Yüksek protecting the center. If De Bruyne cannot receive the ball facing forward between the lines, Belgium may have to work the ball out wide or look for chances from set pieces.
Winning the ball back in the opposition half will matter just as much as Belgium’s possession game. Turkey failed to clear their lines before conceding against France, and their first goal against Italy also followed a poor clearance after a corner. Belgium’s opener against Italy, meanwhile, came moments after De Bruyne won the ball. Without Çalhanoğlu and Kökçü, Turkey could be at risk of losing possession if they try to play short passes through Belgium’s press. A long ball toward Barış Alper Yılmaz or Oğuz Aydın could bypass the pressure, but if it does not find its target, Belgium can attack again. That is why Turkey’s handling of the ball in their own half during the opening 30 minutes will be crucial.
The contest between Belgium’s right and Turkey’s left could also shape the scoring. Italy quickly found Michael Kayode on the right before scoring twice from Turkey’s left in the 22nd and 27th minutes. Belgium can push Timothy Castagne forward on the right, with the attacker ahead of him looking to receive the ball inside. If Lukebakio starts, his left foot gives him the option to cut inside, although there will be less space to run into if Turkey sit deep from the start. Whether Turkey choose Ferdi Kadıoğlu or Eren Elmalı at left wingback will also affect this matchup. Elmalı started on the left against Italy, when Turkey conceded twice in quick succession.
Turkey’s route forward could come down the opposite flank. Against France, Aydın’s passing and Güler’s crosses from the right led to shots. Turkey’s consolation against Italy also began with a low ball from Aydın on the right, finished by Yılmaz. Late in the France match, Michael Olise beat Belgium left-back Maxim De Cuyper before scoring the winner. If Belgium’s left-back loses the ball after joining the attack, Aydın and Yılmaz could target the space behind him. With Lavia expected to miss out, it will matter who wins the ball back in Belgium’s midfield and supports the left-back. But if Godts carries the ball forward down that flank, Aydın will also have to track back into his own half.
Neither team relies solely on a conventional center-forward to finish attacks. Van Bommel has used the well-rounded De Ketelaere up front in both of Belgium’s previous matches. When he drops deep to receive the ball, teammates can run beyond him, but Belgium then have fewer players to target inside the box. Van Bommel has not ruled out starting Romelu Lukaku or bringing him on as a substitute. If Belgium spend a long time facing a deep defense, Lukaku could give them another target for crosses. Turkey, meanwhile, use winger Yılmaz as their center-forward. He scored against Italy by running in behind the defense, but in recent matches Turkey have scored less often than the chances they create would suggest. Even if they find openings in this match through switches of play and Güler’s delivery, their finishing could decide the result.
The teams may also change their approach as the match wears on. Van Bommel substituted De Bruyne in the 58th and 63rd minutes in the previous 2 matches, bringing on Vanaken and Lukebakio together. Lukebakio’s ability to carry the ball was effective when the opposition left space by pushing forward. If the score is level and Turkey keep their back five in place, the same substitution may not create the same openings. Montella responded to falling behind against Italy by making 3 changes at half-time and adding more attackers. If Belgium score first, Turkey will have to push forward, potentially opening space for Belgium’s counterattacks. If Turkey reach half-time without conceding, Belgium will still need to find a way past a deep defense after De Bruyne is substituted.
3. Prediction and conclusion
Belgium are the more likely winners on the strength of their away victory against Italy and their attacking options. The market also favors a Belgium win, possibly by a clear margin, given their home advantage, Turkey’s 2 straight defeats and the absence of key players. However, Turkey kept France out until the 54th minute even without their missing central players, and can use the same starters who played that match. Belgium are also facing a five-man defense while expected to dominate possession for the first time under Van Bommel. That makes it hard to be confident that the home side will score easily, even if they have the edge.
Predicted score: Belgium 1-1 Turkey. We expect Turkey to get through the opening 30 minutes without conceding and keep their defensive shape, while Belgium find a goal by winning the ball back with their press or attacking a loose ball after a set piece. Turkey could also score from one of Güler’s set pieces or down the right through Aydın and Yılmaz. This prediction reflects Turkey’s ability to field the same defensive combination as against France, the fact that Belgium’s recent goals have come from opponents mishandling the ball and from space to attack, and the way both teams’ wide attacks target areas where their opponents have shown vulnerability. The outlook changes if Turkey fail to cope with the early press or a loose ball after a corner and concede first. They would then have to push their wingbacks forward, giving Belgium the chance to extend their lead through runs from Lukebakio and Godts.
