Vega

This KOVO Cup opener is a meeting between continuity and a rebuild. Kepco brings back the spine of last season: its main finisher, its serve weapon, its elite libero and its starting setter. KB Stars have changed their main attacker, their libero and their head coach since spring, and their starting setter is not fully fit. The question is whether a season-old link serving at a brand-new one shows up in the close set endings.

Both of these ACB games turn on the paint more than on the three-point line. In Manresa, the league's leakiest interior defence meets a visitor that lives at the rim and rarely fouls. In Andorra, a home side that has been beaten on the glass and inside in every game so far meets the team that has scored most efficiently inside. In both games the shooting numbers look loud, but the structure is quieter and holds up better.

Both of these games pit a side that lives on the perimeter or the whistle against a side whose interior attack meets the opponent's softest end. Sono shoot threes in huge volume but have leaked inside and on the glass in every game I could measure, and Mobis are built to attack exactly that. Ryukyu are a defence, rebounding and free-throw team with only one true centre left, and Yokohama's current scorers live in the paint. In both games the measured mismatch points to a close finish rather than the comfortable margin the reputations suggest.

This KOVO Cup group decider looks much closer than the names suggest. Both sides are 1-1, and against the same two opponents in this cup they produced almost identical results with their current rosters. The match should come down to serve against reception at both ends, with no dominant import on either side. Last season's one-sided head-to-head was played with different rosters and staff, so it says little about this meeting.

Both of these games pair a short-handed side against a favourite that lacks the one weapon that would punish the shortage. Sydney don't take the ball away, so a Breakers team with no point guard is less exposed than it looked in Perth. Nagasaki lose the glass almost every night, so a KCC team down to one creator still has a way to win possessions. In both games the margin depends on the second half more than the opening quarters.

Perth and the Breakers are a clash of styles: Perth win by getting more shots, the Breakers by getting better ones. Their first meeting this season was played under almost the same lineups as this one. Perth won it by four only because nearly everything outside the paint went their way. Take out the one-off shooting and that game looks like a coin flip or better for New Zealand.

This match is a straight trade-off between pace and size. Barcelona want to run and draw contact, and Zalgiris want to slow it down and live on the glass through Valanciunas and Tubelis. Both coaches named the same key in their previews: Masiulis wants to stop Barcelona's fast attacks, and Sekulic talked about rebounding against Valanciunas. Whoever wins that trade decides a game that should stay close to the end.

This number is built on what Chicago were last season, a team that ran as fast as almost anyone. Preseason isn't the regular season, though. Starters play roughly 16 minutes, and the rest of the game belongs to rookies and camp players. That gap is what this pick turns on.

Cluj's 0-1 Eurocup start looks far worse than the team Venezia will actually face. That 55-89 loss in Rome came without their starting point guard, and before their new center had played a single game. With both back, Cluj looked like a different side in their next outing. That gap between the scoreline and the team on the floor is what this slip is about.

KCC are priced like defending champions, but this early-season version is leaning hard on four players. Song Kyo-chang and Choi Jun-yong aren't around, so Sean Long, Lewis King, Heo Hoon and Heo Ung carry nearly everything. KoGas are 0-2, but both losses stayed close against teams the market rated well above them. I'm backing KoGas to keep this one tight in Busan.

The Thunder have built this pre-season opener in Tulsa as an evaluation night, and their whole regular rotation is sitting. New Orleans have no injuries listed and no reason to hold anyone back. My read is simple: for every minute the Pelicans' core is on the floor, it's a first team against a training-camp roster. The market still treats this as close to even.