KCC are priced like defending champions, but this early-season version is leaning hard on four players. Song Kyo-chang and Choi Jun-yong aren't around, so Sean Long, Lewis King, Heo Hoon and Heo Ung carry nearly everything. KoGas are 0-2, but both losses stayed close against teams the market rated well above them. I'm backing KoGas to keep this one tight in Busan.
Look at KCC's two league games. In the opener LG beat them 103-68 at home, and the two imports managed just 31 points between them. Two days later at Mobis, King scored 32 and Long had 25 and 17 rebounds, and KCC led by 22 after three quarters. Then Heo Ung and Long both fouled out and Mobis won the fourth 27-15. When the imports are rolling KCC look great. When foul trouble hits, there isn't much frontcourt depth behind them.
KoGas have been more stubborn than their record says. They lost by 9 at Sono and by 6 at home to Jung Kwan Jang, and they scored evenly across both halves against Jung Kwan Jang. Belangel put up 23 in that game, and the new import pairing of Rageane and Aluma added 31 between them. Coach Kang Hyuk says the two big men are still learning to share the floor because Rageane joined training late.
The schedule also tilts a little their way. KCC were on the road in Ulsan two days before this match while KoGas played at home in Daegu. KCC's fourth quarters have been their weakest stretch so far, and that's where this matchup should be decided.
