Vitória's home record commands respect, but their attack has not made a convincing case for a comfortable win in this match. Chapecoense have shown they can strike on the break when the other side controls the ball. The point for me is whether Vitória turn their wide play into clear chances rather than another stream of crosses. I expect a close contest.
Vitória led Cruzeiro at the break before losing 3-1. They took 21 shots, yet the match data recorded just 0.50 xG for them. Their midfield also lost cover after Caíque Gonçalves went off, and they had already let a two-goal lead slip against Mirassol. Jair Ventura is expected to have Mateus Silva back on the right, but the recent games show how hard Vitória have found it to sustain their early control.
Chapecoense's draw at Atlético-MG came under heavy pressure: they faced 26 shots and 2.20 xG. Their goal still came from a break through open midfield. They also won at Corinthians despite the home side creating more chances. Rafael Lacerda's expected attack keeps Marcinho, Túlio Eduardo and Garcez in front of Giovanni Augusto, giving them outlets against Vitória's wide approach.
