The Lille vs Lens derby pits a home side with a strong defensive structure against an opponent whose defence keeps breaking in the same place. In Villarreal, the result matters less than the state Espanyol arrive in: tired legs, an interim coach and an attack that barely creates. In both games the market has gone by form lines, and what actually decides each match is a matchup.
Lille vs Lens. Lille under Davide Ancelotti sit compact and break fast. They have the best defence in Ligue 1, six conceded in eight, and they scored first at Monaco from a high turnover with only a third of the ball. Lens win through volume and crosses, with Thauvin as the creator and Hazard off the bench. But they have conceded in all of their last ten, mostly through runs in behind their outer centre-backs and through rebounds.
The key matchup is Mbappé and Diaoune running at a Lens back three that has been reshuffled again, with Gradit only just back. On the other side, Nianzou's suspension changes Lille's centre-back pair, and that is the real cost for the hosts. The 'two strikers out' story about Lens is overstated, though: Ivanović started the last match. Both coaches talked about discipline and balance, so a tight first half is likely, and Lille are built to protect a lead. That's why I'm siding with Lille, with the draw covered.
Villarreal vs Espanyol. Villarreal keep the ball and create around two expected goals a game, and they have failed to score only once in their last ten. Espanyol sit 18th, create very little and rely on Fortuno to keep defeats narrow. This time the context is different. Espanyol's back line of Cabrera, El Hilali and Riedel played 120 minutes in the cup on Tuesday, many players could only do recovery work, and the interim coach has had one proper session after Manolo's sacking. Riedel is reported left out of the squad. Villarreal, meanwhile, rested their league starters in their own cup tie.
Villarreal's midfield is without Gueye and Saliba, which gives Espanyol's counters a little room. But their transition game produced one shot on target at Racing and Kike is still missing. I expect Villarreal to press and probe early, and the block to start fraying after the hour, which is when Espanyol conceded late at Racing and in extra time on Tuesday. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal to win this by more than a goal.
