Nashville against Red Bulls sets the league's best home attack against a side that must win and can't live with a draw. The opening half hour belongs to the press, but the later game should favour whoever has the fresher finishers. In Vancouver, each side's main route runs straight at the other's weakest unit on the day. That points to a game with work for both goalkeepers rather than one team in control.
Nashville are 14-2-0 at home with 45 scored and 12 conceded, built on the same back five and on Surridge, Mukhtar and Espinoza's delivery. Of the two dropped results, one was a 2-2 comeback against DC and the other the 0-0 with Philadelphia after five changes, when Surridge and Mukhtar sat on the bench for 58 minutes. That rest matters: those two and Najar played only 32, 32 and 18 minutes last time out, and a win would tie the league's points record and keep the home season unbeaten.
Red Bulls under Bradley press hard and make chances without the ball, and Hall and Ruvalcaba are both available. But they concede about 1.81 xG a game on their last six trips, and their two road wins came while being out-created. Nealis and Donkor are suspended, which takes out a physical back-line duellist and the team's lead assist role, and leaves a new back line to face Surridge's runs.
Expect Red Bulls to press high on a wet pitch and Nashville to look uncomfortable for a spell. Once through it, direct balls find space behind. Because Columbus's win leaves Red Bulls needing all three points, they have to stay high even when behind or level. A level game late is more likely to break, and it should break toward the better, fresher side. That's why I'm siding with Nashville.
In Vancouver, the home side have clinched the top seed but one local preview still expects a team close to their last one. Cubas is out, and at BC Place without Cubas they conceded 2.42 xG on 20 or more shots against both DC United and San Diego. Seattle have made between 1.22 and 1.99 xG in the three away games I read, and Schmetzer says Rothrock will be available. Kingston is also eligible, despite what some feeds show. For once Seattle shouldn't have to break down a low block, and Morris and Joveljic can run into the space.
At the other end, Vancouver's press, corners and crosses meet a back line without Gomez Andrade that just lost a near-post flick from a corner to Houston. White and Gauld both headed in goals in the 4-1 over San Diego, on 10 shots on target and 8 corners. Thomas is having a fine season, but the volume should test the Seattle keeper.
A Vancouver goal forces Seattle out, and a Seattle goal leaves Vancouver needing to reply on short rest. Seattle's chances have mostly come after half-time, and with legs short on both sides, the second half should be the most open part of the game. That's why I'm expecting goals at both ends here.
