Both of these matches pair a tired side with a clear plan against an opponent that has lost the players who made it dangerous. Udinese go into a third game in seven days with half-fit attackers and no striker on the bench, and DC United have lost the two forwards behind most of their threat. The fatigue on the stronger side is real in both cases, but it sits in different places from where the damage has to be done. What matters is which routes to goal are still standing.
In Udine, Gasperini's Roma win through wing-back overloads, midfield arrivals, set pieces and a bench that changes matches. Against Cagliari the first two goals came from wing-back to wing-back crosses, and the last two came from substitutes. At Napoli, substitutes helped turn 2-0 down into 3-3. None of that depends on Dybala, Pellegrini or Kone.
Udinese have one goal in their last four league games and two in five at home. Their losses share a cause: corners, and space behind them once they step up. Lecce and Milan both punished that. Solet and Alaba are out, which leaves Abankwah, Kabasele and Palma to hold corners against a team that averages 6.7 of them a game.
The matchup to watch is Lulli and Wesley against Vojvoda and Kamara, who must defend that flank and also supply Udinese's outlet. Roma's back three is changing and Cristante is on a fourth straight game, but Malen and Mora played only 34 minutes against Cagliari, so the front line is fresher than the fixture list suggests. Davis and Zaniolo are the danger in the first half, both below full fitness by their own coach's words. Expect Roma with the ball, then the bench around the hour. Once Roma score, Udinese must push up. That's why I'm siding with Roma to win.
In Columbus, the Crew have won six of seven in the league and need the points, with Schulte calling the last two games finals. At home they play on the front foot: 3.82 xG to 0.71 against Charlotte and 1.87 to 0.27 against Miami. Their goals come from Tapia's runs, Rodriguez's passes behind, Schulte's quick restarts and Chambost's deliveries.
DC beat them in September with a Baribo brace and a Munteanu assist. Neither plays. DC have already shown what is left, at Toronto without either man: Ordaz and Peglow up front with no shot on target between them, and threat only from corners and midfield arrivals. They have conceded two or more in seven of their last ten and have nothing left to play for.
Columbus have six games in 17 days behind them, but they won 4-2 and 2-0 on this same load, and Mendez is back as an option. Their set-piece and restart routes do not need fresh legs. An early goal is the main branch, as in their last three wins, and it forces DC out of a block that held firm for a half at Toronto. That's why I'm siding with Columbus to win this by a clear margin.
