Toyama against Ibaraki is a meeting of two offences that change shape with the venue. At home Toyama score through the paint and the free-throw line, not the arc. On the road Ibaraki slow games down and lean on their rebounding. Put together, this looks like a half-court game in the 70s for each side, not a shootout.
Toyama's home numbers are unusually consistent. They made 6, 6, 6, 6 and 5 threes in their five games in the reopened arena and topped out at 82 points. That 82 needed 34 free throws against a Shimane side that fouled a lot. Their big scoring nights (105 at Hokkaido, 94 at Altiri Chiba, 99 at Shinshu) all came on the road.
Ibaraki are the better shooting team on paper, and since Vic Law came back they are 4-0. But their road games look nothing like their home ones. Away from Mito this season they played 69-66 at Alvark, 82-74 at the Brave Thunders, and 77-86 and 71-72 at Gunma. Their 98 and 102 came at home against weaker sides. Their road three-point shooting sits around 32%, with nights like 8 of 37 at Alvark, where they still won on a 44-36 rebounding edge.
The key matchup is Toyama's free-throw drawing against Ibaraki's fouling. Before Law's return Ibaraki gave up 27-33 free throws to stronger sides; since then it has been 19, 22, 20 and 11. That narrows Toyama's main scoring route. The other matchup is Ibaraki's three-point volume against a Toyama defence that allows plenty of attempts. That is the swing, but it needs Ibaraki to shoot like they do at home.
On lineups, Ibaraki's starting five from their last game (Law, Delaney, Yoshii, Soares, Maeda) all played. Toyama's Sims went down in the second quarter of the Shimane game. If he is limited, that takes something away from Toyama's inside scoring rather than adding pace.
I expect Toyama to grind for paint touches and trips to the line while Ibaraki work the shot clock and control the glass, with the game decided late at the stripe. Both halves of the matchup point to a lower-scoring game than the season-wide averages suggest, so I'm on the under side of the total.
