Spurs have created more than they have scored all season, and Coventry did the opposite in their last league game, so I'd treat this match as a question about who the finishing luck is about to turn on, not who is "in form". Coventry beat Newcastle 4-1 from 9 shots and 1.43 xG in our records, with a third of the ball. Tottenham have no league win from six and, per Sports Mole, sit 3.9 goals below their expected-goals total. The part I find more useful is the midfield: De Zerbi has just lost Bergvall and Savio on top of Bentancur's suspension, and is still asking for far more chances than he gets.
Tottenham first. The club site has Bergvall out for about two weeks after a knee problem picked up in the first chance of the Old Trafford game, Savio out for some weeks, and Porro not back until the Chelsea game at the earliest. Sports Mole lists Bentancur as suspended after his red card against United. That leaves a midfield with Tonali as the obvious anchor, and Sports Mole tips Maddison for a first league start. De Zerbi said in his press conference that he wants 20 chances a game, not eight or nine, per dave.sport. In the 1-1 at United our data has 1.62 xG against 0.80, so the creation was there, and the question is whether it survives without the legs he has just lost.
Coventry's side of it. The 4-1 was more clinical than dominant: 33% possession, 9 shots to 19, 1.43 xG to 1.84 for Newcastle. Away from home it looks different. In our table they have scored once and conceded four in three league away games, and Lampard's side have two wins in a row after losing their first four. Sports Mole expects a back three with Cherif up front, while dave.sport predicts a 5-4-1, so the shape is not settled. Against a Spurs team that probably keeps most of the ball, a back five that stays compact and releases one forward is a very different job from a 4-2-3-1 that has to defend high.
So the interlock I would watch: if Spurs get their shots from the middle with a patched-up midfield, Coventry's low-possession model may be exactly the one that suits them, because their wins have come from few chances taken well. If Spurs instead go wide, a five-man defence has the bodies to block crosses. I don't have the confirmed line-ups yet, so what I'd look for is how Tottenham's midfield pair is set up and how deep Coventry's wing-backs start.
