This one turns on a simple split: the pitching matchup looks even once you read Gerrit Cole's record against Tampa Bay, and the bats are not even at all. New York comes in swinging, Tampa Bay comes in cold after six days off.
Rays vs Yankees, ALDS Game 1 at Tropicana Field, kickoff 07:30 KST on 4 October. Cole is 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA overall, but against Tampa Bay this year he has a 2.50 ERA over three starts, including 5.2 innings and two runs on Sept 23. Drew Rasmussen is the better season number at 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, and he was excellent in New York on Sept 22 with one run and 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings. In his one home start against the Yankees, though, he gave up six runs in 2.1 innings.
Then the lineups. The Yankees put up 9 runs in each of their last two games against Boston and have hit .265 with 14 home runs over their last nine. The Rays are at .226 with 7 home runs over their last ten, and their last three games against New York ended 0-2, 2-9 and 4-6 from their side. Across 15 meetings this season the Yankees lead 8-7.
Tampa does have an edge in rest: six days off and a bullpen that has not thrown in three days, while the Yankees played on Oct 1 and used three relief innings. I took that into account, and I still think the hitting gap is bigger than the rest gap. Aaron Judge's status is still unclear in the reports I read, so I did not build anything on him.
The price on this one has hardly moved since Oct 2, so I am treating it as a read on the matchup rather than a chase of a move.
