Two continental matches where one side carries the ball and creates the better chances, while the other is built to defend and counter. The gap in chance quality is the thing to watch, not the table.
Machida visit Shanghai Shenhua. Machida average well over half the possession with strong expected-goal numbers and concede few shots. Shenhua have lost a starting centre-back to a fractured jaw and their coach has openly said he must rotate because of injuries and tiredness. Shenhua's route is a fast counter through the foreign forwards, but the lineup is unpublished and the back line looks thin. That's why I'm siding with Machida away.
Pathum United travel to Tai Po. Pathum took eighteen shots with seven on target in their last continental game, while Tai Po have not scored in either of their two group games and had under a third of the ball last time. Pathum defend loosely and could concede a counter or set piece, but the gap in control and level of opponent is clear. That's why I'm siding with Pathum United to win.
