Both of these matches have the same basic shape: a favourite that controls the ball, and an underdog whose recent results look worse than its football. In Stuttgart, Gladbach's pointless start hides a back five that has kept both games under the new coach tight. In Bolton, Middlesbrough's possession game runs into exactly the kind of counter-attacking side that has scored on them all season. The question in each match is not who is better but how the favourite's control turns into goals, at either end.
Stuttgart against Gladbach. Stuttgart keep the ball and press at home, but their league finishing has been poor: eight goals in six games, and three blanks in five since the opener. In their two league games straight after a Champions League midweek they scored once and then not at all, and this is their third match in seven days, coming after Atletico. Gladbach's zero points and twenty goals conceded look like a collapse, but sixteen of those came in four games under the previous coach, one of them with ten men. Under Blessin they lost 1-2 at Koln and 1-2 at home to Hoffenheim, with a five-man back line and Nicolas making saves.
The absence list is long, but eight of the nine names were already missing from the XI that lost to Hoffenheim. Only Lidberg is new, and Machino came on for him in that game. So the Gladbach side that takes the field is basically the side that has been losing by one goal, not a new team with new holes. Stuttgart lose Vagnoman at right-back, and the projected XI looks partly rotated, close to the group that had 24 shots and scored nothing at Hamburg.
The flow I expect is Stuttgart with most of the ball against a deep block and a cagey first half. Gladbach's outlet is Mohya and Bolin breaking down the flanks. Stuttgart's route to a big win is an early pressing goal that drags Gladbach out of shape, but their recent pattern is control without the second and third goals. That's why I'm siding with Gladbach to keep this close.
Bolton against Middlesbrough. Boro are third and unbeaten in nine, with lots of the ball, plenty of shots and most of their goals after the break. Their weakness is how they concede. Millwall had a fifth of the ball and still led 2-0 at half-time at the Riverside, Cardiff led 2-0 at the break, Norwich scored inside a minute and Birmingham hit twice in four minutes. Boro have kept only two clean sheets in ten.
Bolton are the kind of team that hurts them. Away at Wolves they won 3-1 with 39 percent of the ball, and at Norwich they won 4-3 with 41 percent, breaking through Rodrigues and Dalby. The absences on both sides are old ones, so the XIs that built these patterns are the XIs that should play. Strong wind and rain should bring loose balls and turnovers in midfield, which suits a counter-attack more than a clean controlled game.
Whoever scores first, the game should open up: if Bolton lead, Boro chase, and they have come back each time; if Boro lead, Bolton have to come out, and Boro have closed out a lead cleanly only once in this run. That's why I expect goals at both ends in this one.
