Both of these matches are built around defences that give chances away cheaply and attacks that produce plenty of them. Neither one looks like a controlled, low-event game on paper: one has a home side that keeps conceding early goals while firing a lot of shots, the other has a high-pressing home side against a visitor that loses too many one-on-one duels.
Pachuca against Necaxa. Pachuca have not won at home this season, but the reason is not a lack of attack. They take around sixteen shots a game, had twenty-nine against Tijuana, and their home results (3, 5, 2 and 4 goals in total) have all been lively. The problem is at the back: a goal in the third minute against Chivas and an early penalty against Tijuana. Necaxa under their new coach have lost both games and conceded heavily, including twenty shots and a very high chance count against America. Both sides also give away penalties regularly, and Necaxa have a clear penalty taker in Carranza. Rondon is Pachuca's finishing and penalty focus, and their expected goals tend to rise after the break. The four Pachuca absences are old injuries that the recent run was already played without, so the front line should look familiar.
I expect Pachuca to hold most of the shots, Necaxa to answer through transitions or a penalty, and the match to stay open instead of settling into a deep block. That is why I'm siding with a goal-heavy match here.
St. Louis City against LA Galaxy. St. Louis score a lot, around two and a half to three a game lately, and they do it through wing-back overloads and a man-on-man press that wins the ball high. Galaxy's centre-backs and full-backs lost duels in the recent Colorado game, and their back line has been conceding more than a goal and a half per game with a high chance count against. The matchup to watch is Navarro, Holse and Matan running at Glesnes and Haak, with the St. Louis wing-backs supplying the crosses. Fall only recently returned to the St. Louis back three, which is the one place they have shown early concessions.
Galaxy are not just there to concede. They scored three in each of their last two games, Reus takes penalties, and Taylor, Miller and Klauss can punish wing-backs who push high. If Galaxy get through the first press the game opens even more; if St. Louis score early, Galaxy have to come out and the game stretches. Either way I see goals at both ends, so I'm siding with a lively match in this one as well.
Two different games, two different sets of reasons, one common shape: attacks that create and defences that leak.
