Sheffield United can build pressure through their wide players and collect loose clearances, while Derby seek Morris and the runners around him. Their recent matches show that territory and the next clean shot are separate things. Arsenal should own long spells against Everton, but Everton can mix a compact defence with pressure on Arsenal's first pass.
Derby's Vickers, Nyambe and Sanderson already handled the Stoke match together; most of the defensive absence list was in place then. Travis is newly out after playing Stoke, so Derby will need the first pass into Morris and a firm second clearance. Sheffield's Burrows and Chong can create entries, yet the Bristol win produced few shots on target after the opener. That's why I'm siding with Derby County to stay close.
Arsenal's Ødegaard and Rice can recycle attacks toward Eze or Madueke, but their territorial control at Forest yielded little clean finishing. Saka left the Bayern match early and is ruled out, while Everton's Mykolenko and Branthwaite both played the full Chelsea match. Grealish and Barry give Everton a forward exit when Garner or Dewsbury-Hall wins the next ball, and their high pressure can interrupt Arsenal's build-up. That's why I'm siding with Everton to stay close.
