Santos arrive on a five-game league winning run, but the run says more about finishing and goalkeeping than about control. Flamengo are the side that creates more and gives up less, and the people who held Santos's run together are partly missing for this one. The shape of the match should be Flamengo with the ball against a Santos block looking to break. How the first goal falls decides almost everything after it.
The numbers behind the two sides are far apart. Flamengo top the table with a 55-23 goal record, and over their last nine games with stats they averaged 57% possession, around 15 shots a game and an expected-goals split close to 1.9 for and 0.8 against. Santos are eighth and have conceded 41. Their winning run came with them out-shot 9 to 20 at Sao Paulo, 8 to 18 at Corinthians and 5 to 15 at Internacional. Gabigol's finishing and a goalkeeper who stopped more than he should have kept those results going.
That goalkeeper, Brazao, is out with a shoulder injury, and back-up Diogenes starts. Everton Cebolinha, who set up Gabigol at Sao Paulo, is ineligible because of a contract clause. Arthur is out with a thigh injury, and Coutinho makes his first start without being fit for the full game. Willian Arao is expected to drop from midfield into the back line, and Gustavo Henrique moves forward as an extra screen. Neymar is expected only on the bench.
Flamengo have their own gaps. Arrascaeta is out after wrist surgery and Leo Ortiz misses out for personal reasons, so Danilo should partner Leo Pereira against Gabigol. Without their best final-third passer, Flamengo's chances should come more from the flanks, with Samuel Lino and Plata or Carrascal running at Rodinei and Escobar and crossing for Pedro. They have also not played for 18 days, which means fresh legs but possibly a slow start.
Expect a loud, sold-out Vila Belmiro and an early Santos press, with Gabigol looking to break in behind the new centre-back pair. If Flamengo get through that spell and score first, Santos have to come out of their shape, and that leaves a reshaped defence and a back-up keeper facing a side that shoots a lot. In the last half hour Flamengo can bring on Bruno Henrique and De la Cruz, while Santos's midfield will be tiring around Coutinho.
Santos's form hides what this team is missing for this match, while Flamengo's edge in chance creation and their defensive record should travel. That's why I'm siding with Flamengo to win at the Vila, and to do it by more than a single goal.
