The Brewers are in prime position to clinch this NLDS against the Padres. While San Diego is facing a must-win situation and starts Nick Pivetta, his inability to pitch deep into games creates a fatal flaw for the home side. The Padres will have to rely heavily on a bullpen that was heavily taxed in the previous game, giving Milwaukee the late-game advantage they need.
Nick Pivetta has been effective when on the mound, holding a 2.86 ERA, but he has only managed 34.2 innings across 8 starts this season. This average of just over four innings per outing means the Padres' relievers will be forced to cover nearly half the game.
San Diego's bullpen is already in a tough spot. They threw 80 pitches over 3.2 innings in the most recent matchup. Forcing an overworked bullpen to navigate the middle and late innings of an elimination game significantly increases the chances of a breakdown.
Milwaukee, holding a 2-0 series lead, sends Dustin May to the mound. Although his 4.70 ERA suggests he might give up runs, the Brewers' offense should have ample opportunities to break through once Pivetta exits. The fatigue in the Padres' bullpen provides the perfect opening for Milwaukee to seal the series on the road.
