Two Korean matches, and in both the result should turn on which missing piece can actually be replaced. Wonju DB has lost interior scoring it has not rebuilt, while LG has a passing centre and a week of practice to cover its own gap. The baseball decider looks level on paper, but the middle innings are not, because one bullpen has a clear answer ready and the other is relying on an arm in a park its manager has avoided.
LG is a low-turnover, three-point team built around Marei as a passing centre, giving the ball away under seven times a game. DB was a guard-led side with real inside scoring, but that profile was built with Ellenson and Kang. In the first meeting Ellenson and Hammonds made 20 of DB's 30 twos. Without those two forwards DB's two-point shooting has dropped from 54.9% to 48.7% over three road games.
The key matchup is Alvano against LG's point guard gap with Yang Jun-seok out. Goodwin took the ball at Sono, and in one-import quarters Marei's passing has to help, with 7 to 9 assists in the games I read. DB's new import Williams grabbed 15 rebounds on debut, but his coach says he does not know the system yet. So DB gains on the glass without getting its offence back.
LG has had nearly six days off, the first real practice block for Goodwin's role, while DB comes in on a 24-hour turnaround on its fifth straight road game. Alvano's short minutes in the blowout at KCC ease that, but the legs should still be tested late. I expect LG to build its lead through the two-import quarters, when its rested shooters face DB's thin forward group. That's why I'm siding with LG at home.
In Daegu, Samsung and KIA are level at two games each. Samsung has done its damage through Gu, Diaz and Choi, and KIA's left-handers have leaked against them in three straight games with three different arms involved: Lee Eui-ri, Kim Beom-su and Kwak Do-gyu. KIA knows it, and has said Yang Hyeon-jong follows Oller. Yang is rested, but his manager arranged the rotation to keep him from starting in Daegu, saying he has a very hard time there.
Oller is the better pitcher across the season, but his two Daegu starts this year total 5.2 innings and 13 runs. Jurado held KIA to two runs over 6.2 innings in Game 2, with three straight in-order innings, and has a 2.81 career ERA against them. Samsung's errors are its biggest self-made problem, six in three games against none for KIA, and I have counted that against them.
Both managers plan quick hooks, so the game should be decided between the fifth and eighth innings. Samsung has Won Tae-in, unused in Game 4, for the biggest outs, and it bats last. That's why I'm siding with Samsung.
