This rematch will come down to possessions more than shooting. Gunma already won here by eleven in early October, controlling the ball and living at the foul line, and they did it without their best wing creator. Ryukyu arrive on two home blowouts, but both came against weak defences, and the habits that cost them that first meeting have not gone away. The real question is whether Ryukyu's home three-point streak can outweigh losing the turnover and free-throw battles again.
Gunma's formula is simple. They commit few turnovers, nine to thirteen in their last five games, and force eleven to fourteen. Kyle Blackshear and Trey Jones draw contact: 26 free throws in the last meeting, with Blackshear perfect from the line. Ryukyu are the opposite on both counts. They gave the ball away 19 and 18 times in their two games against Shiga and 14 times against Gunma, and they shoot around 68 percent at the line, so even their high foul-drawing nights at home leave points behind.
The biggest change since the first meeting is Stanley Johnson. He missed that game and has since played heavy minutes in each of his last three, scoring in the twenties with plenty of threes. Ryukyu haven't faced him yet this season, and Nwaba and K. Jones will have to spend a lot of energy chasing him. Ryukyu's only addition is about fourteen minutes of Kawamata off the bench as an extra rebounder, and Gunma already won the boards in Okinawa without Johnson.
Ryukyu's path is real but rests on shooting. They knocked down fourteen and fifteen threes in the last two home games, against Shiga and Altiri, and Gunma's perimeter defence has leaked in its two recent losses. But the last time these two met in this arena, Gunma held Ryukyu to eight made threes, and Ryukyu's turnover problem tends to come back against teams that pressure.
I expect Ryukyu to start fast at home, with Gunma building the margin after half-time through extra possessions and free throws, much like the third quarter they won by ten here last time. That's why I'm siding with Gunma on the road to win by a clear margin.
