St. Louis are the better team over the season, but this match comes three days after a 120-minute cup final. Eight of their outfielders went the full distance in Columbus, and now they travel to altitude in Utah. Real Salt Lake sit in a 5-4-1 and play on the break. That is the setting where St. Louis have created least and where tired legs are found out most.
St. Louis like to keep the ball and build through a possession midfield of Durkin, Edelman, Totland and Wallem. Against compact blocks lately they have struggled to create: 0.83 xG against Vancouver and no goal in 120 minutes against Columbus. When they do concede, it comes from shot volume and transitions. Minnesota had 27 shots against them.
RSL's route is exactly that. Spierings and Caliskan screen the back five, and when the ball is won Guilavogui, Solans and Lobjanidze run at a back three of MacNaughton, Baumgartl and Polvara, all of whom played 120 minutes in the final. The counter-press and recovery runs St. Louis rely on to stop breaks are the first things to go after an extra-time night.
The absences are mostly known quantities. RSL have played their last games without Arias, Luna and Eneli, and this XI still produced close to two xG at home against San Jose and won at Kansas City. St. Louis lose Bürki to concussion, and Lundt takes over in goal.
St. Louis's best window is the first half hour, while they are still fresh and dangerous from set pieces. After the hour the game should open, and that phase favours the fresher home side, who also need the points more in the race for the playoffs. That's why I'm backing Real Salt Lake to win.
