Rangers are the clear favourite at Ibrox, and nobody disputes who is better. The question is how this Rangers side wins. Under the new manager they squeeze games rather than blow them open, and Kilmarnock have spent the last month tightening up after a collapse at the start of the season.
Look at what Rangers have actually done in the league this year. In seven games they have scored exactly one goal in five of them, they have never scored three, and they have never won by two clear goals. Four of their wins were 1-0. They also lost 1-2 at home to Hibs, so Ibrox has not been a margin machine for this team. The big scorelines people remember against Kilmarnock, the 5-1, 6-0 and 4-1 results, came from a different Rangers team that played a much more open game.
Kilmarnock's August was ugly: 13 goals conceded in their first three league games. Since then they have sat deep and conceded only twice in four matches, with a 0-0 at Aberdeen, a win at Hibs and a draw with Hearts, so they come in unbeaten in three. Their own scoring is thin and mostly comes from set pieces, counters or a Rangers slip, with John-Jules and Hugill the outlets.
On the Rangers side, the long-term injuries to Shankland, Chermiti and Yokota were already in place for most of those one-goal games, so the low scoring already contains their absence. Naderi and Kelsy are expected to lead the line, and the bench has more quality than Kilmarnock's, which is why a late goal for the home side is possible. Kilmarnock are also missing their first-choice goalkeeper and a centre-back, so their back line is makeshift.
I expect Rangers to hold the ball, Kilmarnock to defend in a compact block, and one Rangers goal before the break to set the tone. After that Rangers have tended to manage the game rather than chase a margin. That is why I'm siding with Kilmarnock getting a big cushion of goals: a one-goal Rangers win, a draw or a surprise all work, and only a heavy home win beats this pick. Lineups are not out and I have no shot data for this league, so this is a modest-weight view.
