One match is a clear gap in chance creation, the other is a matchup where neither side makes much happen. Both read better from shots on target and past meetings than from league tables or form strings.
Pohang vs Gamba Osaka. Pohang have lost three straight in the Champions League, scored once and conceded eight. Their recent numbers are thin: about 8 shots and 2.4 on target a game, roughly 0.6 expected goals, while conceding around 2.0. Gamba average about 15.6 shots, 6.1 on target and 2.1 expected goals. Their weakness is finishing, with five draws in ten, so Pohang's route is a penalty or set piece early and then a deep block. The four Gamba injury flags are only doubtful, and the likely replacements are regular starters. That's why I'm siding with Gamba to win in normal time.
Arkadag vs Gol Gohar. The first meeting a week ago ended 0-0 with only three shots on target in total. Gol Gohar have not scored in three Champions League games and create very little on target despite holding about 60 percent of the ball. Arkadag's continental games have all been low-scoring, and their huge league wins came against much weaker opposition. Arkadag sit deep and counter, Gol Gohar circulate the ball without threat. I'm leaning to a low-scoring game, with the total staying under the line.
