Both of these matches come down to a home side that holds the ball without the tools to turn it into goals. Oviedo win by defending, and they now face the league leaders without their striker and most of their attacking depth. Aarhus take plenty of shots but rarely test the goalkeeper, and they have not pulled clear of anyone in their last ten games. In both games the expected pattern is a tight match where the home side's attack falls short of its share of the ball.
Oviedo v Eibar. Oviedo have kept three clean sheets in four home games, but they have scored only twice at home. That is a team that sits deep, not one that dominates. Eibar sit top after seven straight league wins under Jokin Aranbarri. They do it with less of the ball, a compact block, a strong goalkeeper in Magunagoitia and quick breaks through Adu Ares, Guruzeta and Ivan Gil. They are often outshot, but most of that volume comes from teams chasing them.
The key fact is Oviedo's injury list. Chris Ramos, who scored, went off injured in late September, Juan Cruz followed in early October, and five more attackers are out with them. The likely number nine is a free agent signed this week. Oviedo's route to goal is crosses and set pieces against Elgezabal and Arbilla, with Nolaskoain back. The more Oviedo have to push, the more room Eibar get behind their full-backs. They also let a lead slip at Eldense last time out, while Eibar came from behind at Albacete. I expect long level spells and a first goal that Oviedo struggle to chase, so I'm siding with Eibar not to lose.
Aarhus v Sonderjyske. Aarhus have more of the ball and shoot about eighteen times a game, but they hit the target only about four times. They have no league win yet, have not scored three in any of their last ten and have not won by two in any of them. They have conceded in all ten, including two late goals at Horsens after leading by two. Sonderjyske defend deep and leak chances, but they have scored in nine of their last ten through De Rosario, Cherif and direct counters.
Aarhus are also without Yakob and Nicolai Poulsen, and Kristjansson, Links and McCowatt are doubts. That leaves the finishing to Serra and Bech. I expect a patient first half from Aarhus and, if they score, a Sonderjyske side that still carries a threat on the counter. The most likely Aarhus wins here are by a single goal, so I'm backing Sonderjyske to keep the margin tight.
