Both matches feature a home side that gives up a lot and a visitor that struggles to turn its own game into goals. Expect the home teams to hold the ball and the chances to come in both directions.
Orlando City play an open game: over nine matches with data they average about 1.9 expected goals for and 2.4 against, and nine of their last ten went over the usual goals mark. Their centre-backs Dorsey and Jansson are out, with two more defenders doubtful, so the back line is thin. New York City are a low-event side with one win in ten and several attackers missing, which is the main reason this isn't a lock; but Orlando's chance volume alone should carry the game to plenty of goals. That's why I'm on goals in this one.
Urawa against Nagasaki: Urawa have won eight of their last ten and have not drawn in eleven league games. Nagasaki have lost four of five away league games, scoring four and conceding eleven, and Urawa out-shoot opponents roughly 15 to 9 in the games with data. Urawa's defence is loose, so a Nagasaki counter goal is realistic, and their expected goals are modest, which keeps the weight moderate. Still, the territory, corners and results all point the same way. That's why I'm siding with Urawa.
