Second-placed Nurnberg host Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga, but the table and the chances tell two different stories. Nurnberg's points rest on finishing and goalkeeping well above what they create, while Wolfsburg make more and better chances against a similar set of opponents. Nurnberg are also without the player who drives their central play. Two open, front-foot sides meet, and the gap in content is larger than the gap in the table.
Miroslav Klose's Nurnberg have 16 points and a 16-6 goal record from six league games, but their expected goals are only about 9.4 for and 8.3 against. The 4-1 over Bielefeld came from under one expected goal, and the 4-2 at Furth came while being out-created. Reichert in goal and sharp finishing have carried them, and they have been brilliant at home in front of big crowds.
Wolfsburg under Strobl hold the ball (57%), take almost 19 shots a game and make about 2.0 expected goals while conceding about 1.5. Their goals match their chances, with no luck behind them. At Karlsruhe, a common opponent, Wolfsburg made over three expected goals, while Nurnberg made under one there.
The absences shift the central duel. Finn Becker, Nurnberg's No.10 and main creator, is out for months after meniscus surgery, and Grimaldi is out up front. That moves Nurnberg's threat to the wings, where quick rotations can still trouble Wolfsburg's man-oriented full-backs. At the back Nurnberg have only two fit senior centre-backs, Kalogeropoulos and Otto, with no like-for-like cover, and Wolfsburg's front three will test them all match. Wolfsburg have their own gaps, Cleiton, Svanberg and Hornby among them, and a third-choice goalkeeper, but their depth is still greater.
I expect Wolfsburg to have the ball and the shots, and Nurnberg to press on the crowd's energy and break into the space behind. If Wolfsburg score first, Nurnberg have to chase without their creator and their thin centre-back pair is exposed late. If Nurnberg score first, Klose's side keeps attacking, and the game stays open for Wolfsburg's volume to tell.
That's why I'm siding with Wolfsburg here: on what both teams are actually creating, they are the stronger side, and a draw between two close teams is covered.
