Both games feature a home or away side with the better attack facing a team that struggles to score and gives up chances. In each, the underdog's best route is a single set piece or counter, which is a narrow path.
Norwich vs Watford: Norwich are goal-rich at both ends, while Watford score about 0.7 a game, have one goal in five away games and have conceded in 18 of their last 20. Watford are also missing defenders. Norwich's front line is thin, but they scored three at Charlton without their injured forwards, so the problem is already priced into recent form. I expect Norwich to have the ball and find the first goal. That's why I'm siding with Norwich at home.
Schalke vs RB Leipzig: Leipzig are fifth with far more shots and better chances than sixteenth-placed Schalke, who have not scored in any of their last three home games. Schalke's midfield is badly depleted and they come off a cup exit with a short turnaround. Leipzig's away defence has been open against elite sides, but Schalke have little to exploit it with. I'm backing Leipzig to win.
