Two favourites, two very different questions. Atletico away from home have been winning by the narrowest margins, and this week they lose the midfield pair that lets them manage a lead. Watford on the road have barely created anything, and they now travel without two of their forwards. One game looks built to stay close, the other to open up once the first goal goes in.
Levante against Atletico first. Atletico's recent away league wins were 1-0 with an 89th-minute goal at Espanyol and 2-1 at Alaves, with a draw at Stuttgart in Europe. Their first halves have been slow. Their one clean two-goal win in this run came at home against ten men.
The absence that changes things is in midfield. Koke and Johnny Cardoso are both out, so Hjulmand comes back alongside Barrios or Llorente, a pairing with less positional control. That is exactly the zone Levante's counters attack through Brugue, Ivan Romero and Thiago Fernandez. Levante have scored three in each of their last two home league games, and Atletico have conceded seven in six away.
Atletico's real second-goal route is the bench: Lookman and Sorloth around the hour against tiring legs. But with Bayern three days later, Simeone is more likely to protect a one-goal lead than chase a second. I expect Atletico to have the ball, a tight first half, and a game that stays within one goal. That's why I'm siding with Levante to keep this close.
Now Norwich against Watford. Watford's away attack is the weakest unit on the pitch: one goal in five away games, and four shots with almost no expected goals at Wolves. Now Antonio and Baah are out too, leaving Kjerrumgaard, Vata, Maamma and Doumbia.
Watford's away defence also gives up volume and concedes in clusters. They faced 24 and 22 shots in their last two away games, were four down at half-time in Cardiff, and three down inside 25 minutes against Burnley. Their right side is patched with Ngakia and Coulibaly out, and a winger is expected at wing-back. That is where Norwich's left-side crosses towards Kvistgaarden should land.
Norwich will hold the ball against a back five, and the first goal is the hinge. Once Watford have to chase, their attack can't respond, and Norwich's wins this season have mostly come by two or more. That's why I'm siding with Norwich to win this comfortably.
