[2026-27 Dutch Eredivisie] Excelsior Rotterdam vs Twente Analysis Preview Kick-off: November 1, 13:30 (UTC)
If Excelsior Rotterdam give up the ball, Twente can spend long spells attacking. But the moment Twente lose it while pushed forward, Excelsior's fast attacks begin.
1. Match Overview and Current Form
Excelsior Rotterdam have 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 6 league games. Those defeats were not all the same kind of slump. At Fortuna Sittard they failed to take a one-on-one chance and a close-range header in a game of few chances, then conceded from a stoppage-time corner. At SC Heerenveen they committed more players forward while trailing and conceded again on the break, losing 0-4. In the cup, goalkeeper Stijn van Hessel's long pass set up Irakli Yegoyan's goal in a 3-0 win over MVV Maastricht. Attacks that start with van Hessel work, but they also allow the opponent a fair number of chances. In their recent competitive games against PSV, AFC Ajax, Groningen and SC Heerenveen, their expected goals against topped 2 every time.
Coach Ruben den Uil can make use of Noa Nauyoks' return. However, in both starts since coming back, Nauyoks was substituted early in the second half. If he plays as the attacking midfielder, Yegoyan's starting position changes, which also affects who is positioned to receive van Hessel's long passes. Excelsior left some regular starters out of the midweek cup game, and they have no midweek game next week. In this home game, where they have to end a winless run in the league, they have little reason to hold anything back.
Twente are 4th and have recorded higher expected goals than their opponent in each of their last 10 competitive games. Against Utrecht they lost 1-2 despite 24 shots. While Twente failed to convert their chances after going ahead, the opponent scored twice on fast attacks (Voetbalprimeur, after the Utrecht game). On the other hand, at AZ Alkmaar they sat deep and won 2-0 with counters and long balls. Coach van den Brom said he will meet this opponent playing his own way (Twente club match preview, October 30). We expect Twente to attack with the ball today.
Midfielder Daouda Weidmann is suspended. The coach said Thomas Van den Belt will replace him (Twente club match preview, October 30). Van den Belt has scored by getting into the box, but whether he will provide the same protection in front of the defence that Weidmann gave is something the match will show. Twente have had six days of rest, and after this game they face Paphos and AFC Ajax in turn. In last season's two meetings, Excelsior Rotterdam took 1 win and 1 draw and did not concede. That has to be weighed alongside the many chances they have allowed to strong attacks this season.
2. Matchup Analysis
The first duel is midfield right after Twente lose the ball. When the opponent's pass goes astray, Excelsior try to get the ball quickly to Yegoyan. Van den Belt, who will play alongside Ramiz Zerrouki, has to stop that advance. With Weidmann out today, how Van den Belt gets back into a defensive position after joining the attack matters. Twente kept up their pressure and then conceded the go-ahead goal to a fast Utrecht attack, which shows Excelsior can get chances too. In the second half, Aymen Sliti and David Garden, whom den Uil can bring on, could also take part in transitions.
The second duel is van Hessel's passing against the positioning of Twente's defenders. If Twente push up, van Hessel can send long balls behind the defence to find Yegoyan. He set up the opening goal that way in the cup and also created a one-on-one chance for Yegoyan against Fortuna Sittard (Voetbalcentraal, after the cup game; Excelsior Rotterdam club match report, October 25). Conversely, if van Hessel loses the ball playing short passes in front of his own goal, Twente get a shooting chance straight away. He showed that risk against SC Heerenveen (Rijnmond, after the game).
The longer it stays 0-0, the more Excelsior can look to win it with a few attacks after winning the ball. If Twente score first, the conditions change. Excelsior have to push forward to chase the game, and Twente can drop back and attack the space behind the opposing defence, as they did against AZ Alkmaar. Twente have 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 competitive games that were level at half-time, and one of those was in the Conference League. A goalless first half alone gives no reason to rate Twente's chances of winning low.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
The market backs Twente because of the gap in the table and Excelsior Rotterdam's winless run of 6 league games. We see the outcome the same way as the market. The stronger evidence is that Twente have won both when they dominate possession and when they sit deep, while Excelsior have repeatedly conceded heavily in games where they committed more players forward while trailing. In their last 4 competitive games trailing at half-time, Excelsior lost every one, with a goal difference of 3-13.
Twente's many shots do not always turn into many goals. Excelsior also have less space for van Hessel's long balls if Twente go ahead and then drop deep. So we rate it highly likely that, even if Twente score first and add another, the total stays at two or three goals. That said, if Excelsior score first while Twente miss their big chances, Twente's midfield without Weidmann and last season's clean sheets in this fixture support a different script.
We see Twente getting past 0-0 and scoring first, then attacking the space behind an Excelsior defence that has pushed up to chase, and winning by two or more goals without conceding.
[Final Conclusion · By Market · Based on Betman Listings] Full-time result: Away win. Twente have a way to win both when they hold the ball and when they sit back, while Excelsior Rotterdam have only the transition, and they have repeatedly lost heavily when they had to hold the ball while trailing. Handicap +1: Away win. If trailing Excelsior Rotterdam raise their line with simultaneous substitutions around the 60th minute, space opens up for Twente to score again with the counters and long balls they used against AZ Alkmaar, and the scorer there is a substitute. Under/Over 3.5: Under. Once Twente go ahead and drop back, the transition space that is Excelsior Rotterdam's only way to score shrinks, so goals come only from the Twente side, and the 0-0 phase may last into the second half.
