Two matches where the headlines point one way and the structure points another. At Bramall Lane, Wrexham's long absence list is old news that their recent form already reflects, while Sheffield United are pushed into the role they handle worst at home. In Nice, Rennes' new back five and missing striker look like a brake on goals, yet both games with that setup still went big. Neither defence on the Riviera has shown it can keep things quiet.
Sheffield United vs Wrexham. Cacace, Cleworth and Windass have been missing since around 10 October. Over that stretch the same depleted Wrexham drew at Derby while out-creating the hosts, beat Preston 4-1 and out-shot Blackburn away. Cleworth is back in training and could even start. Sheffield have won just two of six at home. Their best home result, the 3-0 against Lincoln, came with worse chance numbers than their opponent, and their big attacking day against Derby came mostly against ten men.
The key matchup is Sheffield's wide players, Chong and Brereton Diaz, against a Wrexham back five built to take away exactly those overloads. At the other end Kieffer Moore goes in the air against Tanganga and Kitching, and Wrexham have set-piece threat too. Sheffield's changes are both bad ones: Ryan One is out for weeks, and Bamford, who scored three of their last four home goals, is doubtful. Without him they have the ball but no clear finisher. I expect a quiet first half and a level or tight game deep into the second. That's why I'm siding with Wrexham not to lose.
Nice vs Rennes. Rennes press hard and create a lot, around 18 shots a game, but away from home they leak: nine conceded in three league away games. Lepaul has missed the last two matches and Rennes still produced plenty of chances in both, with Dia and Al-Tamari leading the line. Now first-choice keeper Samba is out as well, and an untested backup takes over.
Nice create little themselves, but their back line is the same one that gave up a flood of chances at Brest. With Seidu ineligible, a young stand-in, Mandza, joins it. Rennes' press against a Nice side told to keep it simple at the back should mean turnovers high up the pitch, and Nice's long balls to Amoura's pace go at Rennes' wing-backs and a new keeper. Rennes have scored first-half goals in three of their last four, and whoever scores first leaves the other team chasing the game. That's why I'm siding with goals in Nice.
