Newcastle against Wellington looks like a home side with the ball against a visitor happy to wait, but the match should really turn on legs after the hour. Okayama against FC Tokyo is a high man-to-man press against one of the calmest possession sides in J1. In the first, the schedule has hit one specific unit. In the second, the press leaves a specific space behind it.
Newcastle are a rebuilt side under Mark Milligan. They hold the ball well in the league, with around 60% in both games, yet they have no league win. What repeats across every level is what happens to their leads: ahead at half-time against Preston, Macarthur and Kyoto, and they won none of them.
Wellington are the opposite shape. They gave up the ball in both games, still out-shot the opponent, and three of their four goals came after half-time. The latest was substitute to substitute, Walker to Bidois.
The key unit is Newcastle's defence. Six players have just played two near-full games with a round trip to Japan in between, and there is no spare full-back to rotate in. Clough was rested, so Newcastle's first hour can be bright, and Wood's penalties and the corners need no running. Wellington have had two extra days of rest and an unchanged group, with Piper in the air and Duran running off him.
I expect Newcastle to threaten early and Wellington to grow after the first changes, with an equaliser the likeliest next event if the home side lead. That's why I'm siding with Wellington to avoid defeat.
FC Tokyo under Matsuhashi recycle through Scholz and Inamura, and they are often level at half-time before winning late. They have gone seven league games without conceding, the last four with this same back line. The injury names on their list are all old and were not part of that run.
Okayama are rested and will press man to man at home, with Lucao as the target and plenty of corners. That press has a cost, though. Kawasaki scored twice straight after regains against it, on only six shots. Okayama also shoot poorly from what they create, with 20 shots and two on target that day.
The matchup that matters is Inamura's long diagonal to Ishihara, which skips the pressing line and asks a wide player to defend in space. Tokyo's thin results are not a finishing slump either: the Mito cup loss was a rotated side, the Kashiwa draw was full of chances, and the same group then put 11 on target against Mito.
Expect Okayama's best spell in the first twenty minutes, then Tokyo settling and using a deeper bench from around the hour. That's why I'm siding with FC Tokyo, with a level game covered.
