Both of these matches come down to one team leaking possessions in a way the other side cannot answer in kind. In New York, Orlando have lost the player who built their whole half-court offence, and the group left behind has to live on jump shots against a frontcourt that keeps winning the glass. In Philadelphia, Detroit give the ball away at the same steady rate whoever they play, and they walk into the building where Philadelphia's guards have forced the most turnovers. Each case is about the possession count more than the names on the injury report.
Knicks v Magic. Both teams are 0-2, but for different reasons. The Knicks lost by six and by four, held both opponents near 106, and lost on their own mistakes: 30 turnovers across the two games and a third-quarter drought each time. What has repeated in their favour is the glass, plus eight against Philadelphia and plus seven in Boston. Orlando's offence ran through Paolo Banchero: 35 points, 10 assists and 16 of the team's 39 free-throw attempts against Atlanta. He is out after an MRI and is not travelling.
The key matchup is Orlando's creation without him. Wagner, Bane and Suggs now handle, and this group has shot about 27 percent from three so far, with Bane at 4 of 19. Up front, Towns, Hart and Drummond face Wendell Carter, Bitadze and da Silva, and Orlando just gave up 61 rebounds to Minnesota. Isaac is also missing, so their length at forward is gone too. The Knicks' turnovers are the counterweight, but Orlando force them at a moderate rate (12 against Minnesota), and Anthony Black, their best defensive guard, has not played a minute this season.
I expect the Knicks to build their lead through second chances and through Orlando's stalled half-court trips, mostly in the first half and in the bench minutes. The third quarter is where Orlando can push back if they turn Knicks mistakes into transition baskets. That's why I'm siding with the Knicks to win by a clear distance: two holes made by Orlando's roster, the glass and the lost free-throw engine, against one Knicks leak of moderate size.
76ers v Pistons. Philadelphia are on zero rest and without Joel Embiid, and the market has moved hard toward Detroit on that news. What it has not addressed is the turnover battle. Detroit have given up 17 to 20 turnovers in all six games with box scores, against defences of very different strength, so most of that leak is self-made. At home, Philadelphia have forced 21 and 22 in all three games. Detroit's own forcing in real minutes is modest at 12 to 14, so they cannot win back those possessions the same way.
Detroit's answer is size and free throws, and it is real: Philadelphia have only Bona at centre, Walker is out, and Embiid's free-throw volume leaves with him. But Detroit are missing their own main rebounder, Jalen Duren, and at Miami without him they were only plus four on the boards. LeBron James sat the previous night and comes in fresh, alongside Maxey, Brown and Edgecombe on the ball. Ausar Thompson, Detroit's best on-ball defender, is questionable after missing shootaround.
The second quarter, when Detroit's deeper bench shooters are on, is their best stretch. Nurse's third quarters have been strong, and the fourth comes down to whether Philadelphia's pressure holds up on tired legs. Even in that tired state I make the turnover net a few possessions in Philadelphia's favour. That's why I'm backing Philadelphia to win at home.
