[2026-27 DFB-Pokal] Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Match Preview Kick-off: October 27 at 19:45 UTC
Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen meet again at Signal Iduna Park, 18 days after their last encounter. Their Bundesliga meeting ended 2-2 after Dortmund had led 2-0, but this time they face off in the second round of the 2026-27 DFB-Pokal. If the match is level after 90 minutes, extra time and a penalty shootout will decide who advances.
1. Match overview and team form
Dortmund are unbeaten after seven league games, with five wins, two draws, 12 goals scored and four conceded. The league’s best defensive record, reported by Eurosport on October 24, reflects Niko Kovac’s defence-first approach. Werder Bremen have three wins, three draws and one defeat over the same period, with 15 goals scored and 14 conceded. They have gone six games without a loss since their opening defeat, and Niclas Füllkrug has scored in every league match during that run. Bremen have scored three more goals than Dortmund, but have conceded 10 more.
Recent results need to be read alongside the performances behind them. Dortmund have scored five goals from 9.85 expected goals across their last five matches. There have been games like the one against Union Berlin, when the opposition kept the middle compact and limited Dortmund’s shots, and others like the Frankfurt match, when shots were stopped by the goalkeeper or the woodwork. Kovac has been trying out a two-striker setup with Serhou Guirassy and Fabio Silva, starting with the match against Baku. The drop in goals alone is not enough to conclude that Dortmund will create few chances again today.
Bremen’s unbeaten run has taken different paths from game to game. Against Augsburg and Paderborn, they brought on attacking players in the second half and fought back from behind. In their recent 3-2 away win over Mainz, two penalties and a deflected shot led to Bremen goals, while Karl Hein had to make saves late on. Bremen have recorded 5.35 expected goals and 8.13 expected goals against in four league away matches this season. Good away results do not show that they will create more chances than their opponents at Dortmund.
Key facts League after seven games: Dortmund, 5 wins and 2 draws, 12 goals scored and 4 conceded; Werder Bremen, 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, 15 scored and 14 conceded Meeting 18 days ago: Dortmund 2-2 at home, goals in the 80th and 85th minutes; Werder Bremen 2-2 away, goals in the 88th minute and stoppage time Key factors today: Dortmund expect Ryerson back and are likely to start two strikers; Deman’s availability for Werder Bremen is uncertain, and their goalkeeper choice is undecided
The fixture schedule is tougher for Dortmund. The club says this is their sixth competitive match in 19 days, a stretch that included away trips to Bodo in Norway and Baku in Azerbaijan. They also travel to Bayern Munich three days later. Still, Kovac has said he prefers experienced players in close matches, and the club have set reaching the DFB-Pokal round of 16 as their target. There is no clear reason to expect them to rest a large number of regular starters. Bremen have played two league matches in the last 14 days, but coach Daniel Thioune has signalled that he will rotate his starting lineup because of fatigue and injury histories.
Bremen are more likely to make changes to their personnel. Ramy Bensebaini is suspended for Dortmund, with Joane Gadou expected to take his place. Giannis Konstantelias, who was involved in the move for the opening goal 18 days ago, is also out injured. The projected lineup has Carney Chukwuemeka in the attacking midfield role, with Silva alongside Guirassy. That is a prediction, not a confirmed lineup.
Bremen have eight players unavailable across defence, midfield and attack, including Niklas Stark and Felix Agu. Left-back Olivier Deman is a particular doubt with a plantar tendon problem, while Agu and Moussa N’Diaye are also unavailable. If Deman misses out, it is unclear who will play at left-back. Thioune has also mentioned Füllkrug and Mitchell Weiser as candidates for rotation. Alexander Schlager, who started in the first round of the DFB-Pokal, could take over in goal from Hein, who made seven saves in the last meeting.
Older head-to-head records have limited value in explaining how this match will play out. Dortmund won five, drew three and lost one of their nine league meetings over the past five years, but the current coaches have faced each other only twice in those matches. Bremen’s record of advancing in all three of their most recent DFB-Pokal meetings with Dortmund also reflects matches played with different squads and coaches. The most relevant evidence is the 2-2 at this ground 18 days ago and the changes expected to the starting lineups.
2. Matchup analysis
In the previous meeting, Bremen dropped their left-sided midfielder into defence without the ball, forming something close to a 5-4-1. Dortmund had 72% possession in the first half but managed only five shots. Against Bremen’s compact central block, possession did not automatically turn into shooting chances. Dortmund’s opener came after they won the ball from Weiser in the 80th minute, while the second came from a corner five minutes later. Bremen did not keep a clean sheet, but Dortmund also did not break them down through possession alone.
The change Kovac is preparing is to start with two forwards up front. With Guirassy and Silva together, Bremen’s centre-backs will have more players to deal with, while Chukwuemeka and Jobe Bellingham can receive the ball behind them. Dortmund created chances with this setup against Baku, though some have pointed out that the opposition were not at Bremen’s level. We will have to see whether the new combination can create shots between Bremen’s defensive midfielders.
Julian Ryerson’s return matters on the right. He missed the previous meeting through injury, but is expected to return on the right flank and deliver crosses. Dortmund’s winner away to Bremen in May also came from a right-wing cross, which Guirassy finished with a header. If Deman plays, Bremen can defend that flank with Deman and Marco Grüll, as they did in the last meeting. If Deman is out, his replacement will have to deal with Ryerson, and Grüll may need to spend more time helping in defence. That would also mean Grüll receiving the ball deeper in his own half when Bremen build attacks.
Adding more numbers in attack also creates a defensive challenge for Dortmund. If the projected lineup has Joey Veerman as the lone defensive midfielder, Bremen’s Tschuki and Ludovit Reis could carry the ball forward around him if Dortmund lose possession during buildup. Bremen’s 88th-minute equaliser in the last meeting came after Nico Schlotterbeck’s pass was intercepted and Reis got past two defenders before shooting. Kovac could respond by starting Felix Nmecha alongside another defensive midfielder, though that would leave fewer players involved in attack.
Set pieces offer Bremen another route. In stoppage time of the last meeting, Grüll delivered a free kick won by Weiser, and Füllkrug was left unmarked to head in the 2-2 equaliser. If Dortmund lose the ball or give away a foul in their own half after taking the lead, Bremen can create a chance regardless of possession. However, if Füllkrug is left out of the starting lineup, Bremen will have fewer early options to win aerial balls and fewer targets at set pieces. Bringing him on later would concentrate the same threat against a tiring Dortmund defence.
Both coaches could make changes around a similar point in the match. Kovac has recently introduced attacking players after the 60th minute to change the game. Thioune has also used Weiser as a second-half attacking option against Augsburg, Paderborn and Dortmund. If Bremen rest Weiser and Füllkrug, their early attack could be less potent, though both could come on later. Dortmund can also bring on Maximilian Beier, Nmecha, Marcel Sabitzer and Ethan Nwaneri. We need to consider the starting lineups and the impact of the substitutes separately.
3. Verdict and prediction
Dortmund have the edge. Even if Bremen keep the middle compact as they did 18 days ago, Ryerson is expected to be on the right and Guirassy and Silva are likely to start together. Bremen will have to contain that attack down their left, where Deman’s availability is uncertain, and it is not yet clear whether Hein will start in goal again. Those conditions make us more likely to see Dortmund score earlier than in the previous meeting.
The market makes Dortmund clear favourites, pointing to their home advantage, the league’s best defensive record and Bremen’s absentees. We agree that Dortmund are more likely to win, but are cautious about the margin. If Bremen keep Füllkrug and Weiser fresh for the second half, Grüll’s set pieces and Füllkrug’s aerial threat will remain even after Dortmund take the lead. The last meeting also showed how Dortmund conceded after losing the ball to an intercepted pass and then failing to defend a free kick.
Our score prediction is 2-1 to Dortmund or 1-1. If Deman is out or Schlager starts in goal, we see Dortmund’s right-wing crosses and the two strikers’ presence in the box making it more likely they take the lead before the 70th minute. Even if Dortmund add a second after Bremen commit more players forward, Weiser and Füllkrug could come off the bench and pull one back from a set piece, leaving Dortmund to win by one. If Deman and Hein both start and Bremen keep the defensive setup from the previous meeting, Dortmund may take longer to score, increasing the chance of a 1-1 as Bremen threaten again from a set piece. Conversely, if Füllkrug starts and is taken off around the middle of the second half, Bremen’s late aerial threat will be reduced, which could change our expectation that Dortmund’s lead stays at one goal.
