Three MLS matches, three different questions. At Gillette the side without the ball has the better plan, in Los Angeles neither team can live with a level game, and in Portland the home side's own defence keeps limiting how far ahead it can get. None of these reads is really about who has the bigger names. Each one comes from how these teams actually win and lose right now.
New England against Inter Miami is a role game. Miami will have the ball, as they usually do, with 57% on average over ten games. New England have won five of five at 35 to 46% possession under Mitrovic in this run and lost both games where they held 57% or more. They do not mind being pressed back. They go quickly through Gil, Miller and Turgeman, who has five goals in the four straight wins.
The key matchup is Turgeman against a Miami back line with Casemiro at centre-back, exposed when running towards his own goal. Holding the ball has not protected Miami lately: RBNY, Atlanta and Cincinnati all hurt them from the same reactive role, and Miami themselves made only about one expected goal in each of their last two games. Their threat is real through Messi, Suarez and De Paul, but Turner has made 8, 7 and 6 saves in his last three.
Harrison and Yusuf have been out since September, so the winning run already includes those absences. Miami must win to take second, New England can accept a draw. A level game late pushes Miami forward into the space New England want. That's why I'm siding with New England not to lose this one.
LAFC against Minnesota should be a two-way game weighted to the second half. A draw reportedly ends Minnesota's season, and LAFC are chasing a top-four place in their home finale. Neither has shown it can close a game: LAFC have no clean sheet in six, and Minnesota have seen four or more goals in eight of their last ten.
Son and Bouanga get to run at a Minnesota midfield without Trapp and Stroud, with Gene and Triantis back out after 90 minutes four days earlier. Minnesota answer with Yeboah, corners and a bench that has been deciding late games, against an LAFC back line that is still unsettled. Neither Lloris nor Callender is on a run of heavy saves. Expect a tight first half hour, then space as the benches arrive. That's why I'm on the goals here.
Portland against Houston is about margin more than the winner. Portland must win and will carry the ball at home behind Velde, Da Costa and Lassiter. But they have kept one clean sheet in twenty, and their last two wins both finished 3-2. Now Miller is suspended and Fory is out with a concussion, so the back four has not started together.
Houston are thin going forward, with Guilherme and Herrera questionable and only one shot on target in each of their last two. They do not need much, though. Bogusz's delivery to Halter gives them a dead-ball route against a back line that has lost height, and Bond has made five saves in each of the last two. Houston have lost by two or more only once in twenty.
Portland should push and may well lead, but a lead has not stayed safe, with late goals conceded in both recent wins. Without a win by two or more in ten games under Cifuentes, that's why I'm siding with Houston to keep this one close.
