Pachuca gave up 3.24 xG at home to Necaxa and still came away with a 3-3, yet the same side has conceded only 3 goals in six away league games. That split is what I'd carry into Monterrey, because "is Pachuca leaky?" has two different answers depending on the stadium. The sharper question is whether Monterrey, who tend to produce shots without many clear chances, can trouble the road version of Pachuca, now playing with a changed full-back line.
Pachuca first. In our table their home record is 0 wins and 11 conceded in five games, while away it is 3 wins, a draw and 2 losses with 9 scored and 3 conceded. Criterio Hidalgo adds that 10 of their 13 Apertura points have come on the road under Benjamin Mora. Against Necaxa they had 61% of the ball and 18 shots but only 1.11 xG, against 16 shots and 3.24 xG for the visitors, and they were two goals down before Bauermann scored in first-half stoppage time and Rondon added two late ones. For this match SI lists left-back Francisco Venegas as suspended (five yellows), with Carlos Sanchez back on the other side.
Monterrey's recent games show a team that is busy without being sharp. At home to Tigres they had 18 shots and 1.10 xG in a 0-0. At Atlante they had 17 shots and 1.10 xG in a 2-4 loss, while Atlante made 1.86 xG from 14 shots. At America they had 7 shots and 0.38 xG for the 1-1, and SI says the club is complaining about a penalty not given on Corona. Mora also has a bad record here: Criterio Hidalgo says he has lost four straight against Monterrey with Atlas and Queretaro, though Pachuca have won their last three visits to the BBVA.
So I'd look at who is forced to change their habit. If Monterrey's volume turns into a first goal, Pachuca have to chase with a patched left side. If it doesn't, the visitors' away record says they can wait for Rondon's moments. Which Pachuca do you think turns up?
