Both of these matches are about one attack that has run out of routes to goal. Mito come into their home game without their first-choice forwards, and Hiroshima arrive tired but with a back line that almost never concedes. In Melbourne, City dominate the ball but keep crossing into a Sydney block built to keep clean sheets, and the weather is against them. In both games the side with the ball is likely to have to work for very little.
Mito against Hiroshima. Hiroshima hold the ball in a 3-4-3, keep about six tenths of possession and have kept seven clean sheets in their last ten. Mito sit low and have scored once in their last five league games. Captain Watanabe and Uchino are out, and two defenders are missing as well. None of them were in the squad that lost heavily at FC Tokyo, so this is not stale news. It is the XI Mito actually field now.
The key matchup is Mito's makeshift front line against Araki and the Hiroshima back three. Araki won ten aerial duels against Shimizu, so long balls are not a way through. Hiroshima are on their eighth straight match with two days' rest, and the local preview says the plan is to keep the ball and manage the game. That slows the tempo and takes away the transitions Mito need. If fatigue blunts Hiroshima's own attack instead, a goalless draw or a narrow scoreline still fits. That's why I'm siding with Mito failing to find a way through.
Melbourne City against Sydney FC. City have had plenty of the ball in both league games but only five and three shots on target, mostly from crosses. Sydney's centre-backs Popovic and Courtney-Perkins eat those crosses: Popovic won eight aerials and made twelve clearances against Western Sydney. Kisnorbo's Sydney sit in a compact block behind the same back line and keeper that gave up only two and three shots on target in their two league games.
Both squads are the same as in their last games, so this is last XI against last XI. Showers, possible thunder and gusty wind are forecast, which hurts crossing and clean finishing, City's main route. I expect City to push early, Sydney to stay compact and break through Sunday, and a tight scoreline. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game in Melbourne.
