These two games point in opposite directions for the same reason: who is actually on the pitch this week. In Mainz, both sides name the same players whose defences have been leaking, so the recent goal pattern should carry on. At Lincoln, the players who scored the goals behind both teams' records are missing. Same question, different answers.
Mainz vs Werder Bremen. Werder's back four have conceded at least twice in each of their last three games together, in a 2-2, another 2-2 and a 3-2. Mainz produce a lot of shots and quality chances at home, and their own back three without Kohr let in four against Leverkusen. Füllkrug and Werder's crossing give the visitors a steady way to score, and they kept attacking late at Dortmund.
The low-scoring meetings of the past came under different coaches and different players, so I don't lean on them. A tight game needs one specific script: Mainz score early and Fischer shuts it down, as at Schalke. Any other start, whether a Werder goal or an equaliser, keeps both teams attacking with fresh legs from the bench. That's why I expect goals in Mainz.
Lincoln vs Burnley. Burnley's recent run of open games came from Vardy, Bruun Larsen and Amdouni, who scored most of their recent goals, and all three are out. Broja and a reshuffled front line will face a deep Lincoln block. Lincoln score less than a goal a game, sit back with the ball rarely, and lose Draper, the target man their long balls aim for.
Burnley's second halves have faded badly, Lincoln don't build sustained pressure, and strong wind and rain are forecast. Burnley's habit of defensive errors is still there, and a set piece or long throw could produce a goal. Even so, I expect a scrappy game settled by one or two moments. That's why I'm expecting a low-scoring game at Lincoln.
