Three matches in one slip, each with a clear shape. Philadelphia against New England looks set to be a game where both teams get chances, because the Union attack fast and are happy to give up the ball. In Seongnam, the league leaders Suwon meet a young home side that has conceded in every recent match. At Urawa, a home side that keeps finding goals faces a Nagasaki team that has barely scored away from home all season.
Philadelphia under Ryan Richter win on volume, not possession. They often have only 36 to 52 percent of the ball, yet they keep producing big chance totals at home against RSL, Orlando and Charlotte, and they haven't failed to score since May. The flip side is that opponents get the ball and shots against them, and they have conceded in seven of their last ten. That suits Carles Gil, who will find space in the half-spaces with Yusuf missing from New England's midfield screen. New England's back line is thin, with Fofana doubtful and Sands only just back, and they face Iloski and Damiani. Cavan Sullivan's absence costs the Union some final-ball quality on the right, but the two-striker press and the direct route stay. A Union win clinches a playoff berth and New England are chasing a home seed, so neither side wants a draw. Most of the goals should come after the break, and once the Union lead, New England have to come out. I'm siding with goals in this one.
Suwon hold the ball through Kim Min-woo and Jeong Ho-yeon, attack from several angles with Kang Sung-jin, Lebon, Kang Hyun-mook and Mina, and usually score early. Their away record is nine wins in thirteen. Seongnam draw a lot at home, but they have conceded in seven straight games, their coach has admitted the attack is weak and the squad tires late, and they already lost at home to the other top side, Suwon FC. Suwon's young back four does give up late goals, but so far only after they were three or four goals up. With Suwon FC two points behind and playing at the same time, Suwon cannot ease off. I'm backing Suwon, with protection if the home block holds.
Urawa under Cho Kwi-jae press narrow and go forward quickly through the shadows Kaneko and Savio, attacking exactly the spaces behind the back three and the late defending of crosses where Nagasaki concede. Urawa have scored in nine of their last ten. Nagasaki are a different team away: no wins in five, four goals scored, and very little created at Chiba. Urawa have no settled centre-forward, so a draw is a real outcome, but Cho has promised his strongest side for this match. I'm with Urawa, with the draw covered.
