Both games turn on length: which side has to cover more of the game with its weaker parts. In Anyang, a rested home side built on ball pressure meets a Wonju DB team two days removed from a road game, with one import and a hole in its frontcourt. In Milwaukee, a starter who reliably goes deep and walks almost nobody faces an offence that lives on walks and traffic, while the home starter is coming off a short outing and a long layoff.
Anyang vs Wonju DB. Anyang win at home through guard pressure and ball security: they forced 17, 15, 12 and 11 turnovers in home games and gave up only four or five themselves against KT, KCC and LG. DB win through scoring volume, with Alvano running things and Hammonds as the one import.
The lineup news hurts DB. Kang Sang-jae, the defensive core, is out with an ankle injury, and Ellenson missed the last game and was being planned out again by the coach. Both Jeong Hyo-geun and Lee Yoo-jin fouled out at KT, so the cover behind Hammonds is thin in every minute. Hammonds played nearly 39 minutes two days before this game, and Anyang have had almost five days off. If Mooney is back for Anyang, they also get second-import minutes DB cannot match.
Expect Anyang to press from the start and build their edge in the second and third quarters, with DB's tired legs and foul trouble showing late. DB's best hope is an Alvano or Lee Yong-woo shooting burst. That's why I'm siding with Anyang to win.
Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay. Two low-power lineups, both top-heavy, so this should be a one-run type of game. Milwaukee build runs with walks and long at-bats: 39 walks over their last ten against Tampa's 23, and they are near the bottom of the league in home runs. Rasmussen has gone six-plus innings in all three of his postseason starts and has one of the lowest walk rates around, so he takes away the main route Milwaukee use.
On the other side, Henderson lasted four innings with four runs in his last start and comes in after eleven days without one. His fastball has played worse against right-handed hitters, which matters against Diaz and Caminero. Milwaukee will likely need their bridge relievers from the fifth inning, while Tampa can hand a lead to a rested Baker, Booser and Wells. That's why I'm backing Tampa Bay to win.
