This is a meeting between two teams that would both rather not have the ball. San Jose have settled into a back five that has kept recent opponents to very little, and Dallas are a counter side being asked to break down a low block at home. The high-scoring meetings of the past were played by different versions of both clubs. What is left is a slow game decided by set pieces and the last twenty minutes.
San Jose's back five of Jasinski, Munie, Romney, Roberts and Ricketts is the same unit that held Nashville to almost nothing in expected goals and drew three times by a single goal apiece. Dallas, without Farrington since mid-October, have produced 0, 1 and 1 goals in their last three home matches, and their chance quality in those games was low.
The key matchup is Musa against Munie and that back five. Musa's numbers this season came mostly with Farrington next to him, and here he is the main route on his own. At the other end, San Jose lose Judd to suspension. He is their top scorer and scored their last goal, and Werner is questionable after coming off early in his last two starts. That leaves Bouda leading the line with the thinnest support of San Jose's run.
The flow I expect: Dallas hold more of the ball than they like in the first half, San Jose sit and look for Bouda in the channels, and chances come mostly from corners. If Dallas score first, San Jose have to come out, and that is when their goals have arrived, so a narrow scoreline is the next state. If it is still level around the hour, San Jose will happily take a point.
The old head-to-head scores and Dallas's season goal rates were built by players who are not on the pitch for this one. The current versions of these teams play tight, low-event football. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game here.
