This match comes down to import count. KBL now lets two imports share the floor in the second and third quarters, and KoGas arrives with both of theirs fit while Wonju DB is down to Hammonds alone, and he is playing on a sore ankle. That gives KoGas a two-on-one edge inside for half the game. DB's best answers are Alvano's pressure on the ball and a lot of threes.
The structure is very different from the meeting on 19 Oct, when DB won by 26. In that game DB had two imports: Ellenson scored 22 and Hammonds 21, and Alvano's five steals helped force 18 KoGas turnovers. Ellenson is now out for about two weeks. Kang Sang-jae, the domestic big who covered the import gap in the first quarter at KT, has a torn ligament and is out for about six weeks. That old result was played by a different DB roster.
The key matchup is Aluma and Ratliffe against Hammonds and DB's domestic bigs. In DB's two one-import games the inside went the other way: KGC shot 24 of 35 on twos, KT scored 25 second-chance points, and two DB bigs fouled out early in the fourth at KT. With Kang gone there is one fewer body to absorb those fouls. Aluma's 24 points on 25 Oct came mostly at the rim and off the glass, and Belangel's drives give KoGas a second way to score.
DB's counter is real. Alvano is a pest against KoGas's handlers, and DB shoots around 30 threes a game. But the forcing has dropped without a second import, to three or four steals a game in the one-import games. And the 15 of 31 from deep at KGC was a hot night, not a pattern I can bank on. KoGas has its own limit: the outside shot has been poor, 5 of 26 against Samsung, so this is not a blowout reading.
I expect a fairly even first quarter, then KoGas building its lead in the middle quarters through second chances and DB foul trouble, then DB pressing late with Alvano and Hammonds at the line. DB's short rotation, with Alvano, Jung and Hammonds all near 36 minutes at KGC, should feel that late push. KoGas is at home in Daegu after two losses and with the 26-point defeat to answer for.
That's why I'm siding with KoGas to win this one with some room to spare. The middle-quarter import edge should hold up through a normal DB shooting night.
