This match comes down to inside points and boards against threes and ball security. Jungkwanjang's strong early record was built around John Mooney, and he is now on the injured list. What remains is a guard-led side that protects the ball and shoots plenty of threes, but has not yet worked out its defence near the rim. KoGas are almost the mirror image, the league's weakest outside shooting team with two healthy bigs and a guard who runs everything through them.
The gap between these two teams looks wider on paper than it is on the floor. Mooney had 23 points and 17 rebounds when Jungkwanjang won in Daegu early in October, and that game can't be carried over. In the three games without him they have conceded 84, 95 and 92, lost the boards 88-96 and allowed 57.4% on two-point shots.
The key matchup is Kebe Aluma and Rah Gun-ah against Thomas and Reid in the second and third quarters, when two imports can play together. Thomas has just come back from a knee bone bruise and played about 30 minutes in his first game back. Reid is more of a perimeter scorer, and he picked up four fouls in 18 minutes last time out and tired late.
The second matchup is the two-man game. Belangel and Aluma are KoGas's main action, with Aluma dishing seven assists in each of his last two games. After the loss to KT, coach Yoo Do-hoon said the two-man defence of Thomas and Lee Dae-heon still had to be worked out because it had been fitted to Mooney, and that the defence wobbled from the guards back. Thomas's help defence was sharp in a 31-13 first quarter that day, but the problems came after it.
Jungkwanjang's answer is real. Five domestic players reached double figures against KT, they commit very few turnovers, and KoGas have allowed 36.2% from three over their last three games. KoGas's recent rebounding numbers are also flattered by opponents short of imports, so I only count them in part. Their full-strength home rows are more modest, but they still hold up, including 38-32 on the boards against the Thunders.
Free throws matter in a game this tight. KoGas are at 82.1% for the season and 39 of 47 over the last three, while Jungkwanjang are 39 of 56 over the same stretch, and their last two losses were by two points each.
I expect Jungkwanjang's guards to be sharp early, as they usually are. Then the middle quarters should bring the game back as the KoGas bigs go to work, and the one-import fourth quarter should favour a fresh Aluma against a load-watched Thomas or a tiring Reid. Jungkwanjang have scored just 17 and 14 in their last two fourth quarters. KoGas don't need the outside shot to fall, because they beat DB with 8 of 33 from three by going 28 of 47 on twos.
I see a close game decided late, not a comfortable one. That's why I'm siding with KoGas at home to win it outright.
