Both of these games look closer than the names on the team sheets suggest. In Kobe against Jeonbuk the likely shape is one side holding most of the ball while the other stays compact and hurts them on a few moments, which usually means a narrow margin. In the cup tie at Iwata, a Kawasaki side that played just two days earlier meets a home team that presses and crosses, and the early phase is where those two things collide.
Vissel Kobe against Jeonbuk. Kobe are the home side and the better team on paper, with a long winning run until their loss at Kashiwa. But look at how they won: a goal in the 90th minute at Gamba, penalties against Cerezo and Kashima, and a lot of one-goal results. Across their last twenty games, a two-goal Kobe win is rare. The Kashiwa loss looks like one bad night, with a keeper error and a good opponent, rather than a collapse. Their only two games with chance data are a lopsided win at a weak Port side and that Kashiwa defeat, so there is no steady two-goal style to point to.
Jeonbuk under their current coach have been a close-game team all season: lots of draws, especially away, and they have scored in each of their last seven. Tiago Orobo and the crossing supply are the route, and the coach said openly that the team came for points. The risk is the last half hour. Jeonbuk have conceded late in four recent league games, so a second Kobe goal is possible. Park Ji-su's head knock is a live question but I am not leaning on it. Kobe's long-term injuries are months old and already built into the winning run. That is why I am siding with Jeonbuk, protected against a one-goal Kobe win.
Iwata against Kawasaki Frontale. This is a single-match cup tie, J2 at home against J1. Kawasaki lost their last game to Nagoya from a corner in the second minute and from second-ball duels, even though the chance numbers were level. Then they have a league game three days later, and their manager's own criteria are motivation and condition, so changes to the eleven that played Nagoya are likely.
Iwata beat a J1 side, Chiba, 4-2 at home in this competition with high pressing and crosses to a target forward who scored twice with his head. Their depth is thin after a few injuries, which I count against them, and Kawasaki's bench is stronger in the second half. The danger for my side is a late Kawasaki goal once the substitutions come on. But a draw is a perfectly normal outcome in a one-off tie, and the early minutes are where a changed Kawasaki line-up is most exposed. That is why I am on Iwata, not to lose in normal time.
