Inter will have the ball and the shots at San Siro, but turning that volume into a big margin is a different question. Shakhtar's starting back four is the same unit that held PSV to almost nothing and beat AEK, and over their last twenty games they have rarely conceded more than two. Inter arrive with no points and must push, and that push is exactly what opened them up against Brugge. Lautaro is missing, which takes away Inter's sharpest finisher.
Inter win by volume: they average more than twenty shots a game with long spells of possession, and their recent three-goal games came against a weak Parma side and from a late bench surge at Bologna. In this competition they lost at Real Madrid and lost a home thriller to Brugge, where the goals came from runs behind their own attack and a counter while they were chasing.
Shakhtar under Arda Turan defend in a 4-1-4-1 block and break wide. Mendoza has scored in both of their Champions League games, and late attacking substitutes like Isaque have created goals off the bench. The key matchup is Inter's wing-backs pushing high against those quick wide outlets, with Mendoza against Inter's right side the duel Inter's own staff flagged.
Shakhtar's absence list looks long, with two goalkeepers and three defenders out, but those are mostly cover players. The expected back four is the one from the AEK win. What they lose is depth for the last half hour, not the starting shape.
I expect Inter to dominate the ball and probably win, with an early goal as the main fork. For a heavy scoreline Inter need an early goal, a bench wave after the hour and a clean sheet all at once, against a block that has made that hard all season. One Shakhtar goal on the break and Inter would need four. That's why I'm siding with Shakhtar to keep this within reach.
