The hosts are the shorter side for this final, but the case against Thailand is thinner than it looks. Their only recent loss came in a group game that no longer mattered, with several regulars rested, and those players are expected back. Add a final that looks tight on paper, and I want to be with the visitors.
That loss to the Philippines is the heart of it. Thailand had already qualified, so the coach rotated Chanatip, Sarach, Supachai and Bihr. With the stronger group they beat Pakistan 4-0 and Vietnam 2-0.
Indonesia's group record looks big, with 11 goals scored, but most of that came in the 9-2 win over Bangladesh, a game played while chasing goal difference against Malaysia. Against the other two real opponents they beat Singapore 2-0 and drew 0-0 with Malaysia. They do have a strong Europe-based core, Haye is back from suspension, and the stadium will be full with about 77,000.
Thailand are the highest-ranked side in the region outside Australia, and Indonesia have lost four earlier regional finals to them. I would not lean on that history too much, because the August games between these sides came with different squads outside the FIFA window. It is a close match, and the visitors are the side I trust a little more when both teams are at full strength.
